⚽ Major League Soccer

Austin vs FC Dallas Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Austin vs FC Dallas in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Monday 17 August 2026, 00:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Austin face FC Dallas in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Monday 17 August 2026, 00:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Austin won 2, FC Dallas won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FC Dallas win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.4-2.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Austin vs FC Dallas with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.62

69%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.39 – 2.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.8%	6.2%	6.7%	4.8%	2.6%
1	4.0%	8.6%	9.3%	6.7%	3.7%
2	2.7%	6.0%	6.5%	4.7%	2.5%
3	1.3%	2.8%	3.0%	2.2%	1.2%
4	0.4%	1.0%	1.0%	0.8%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-2

Austin winDrawFC Dallas win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Austin vs FC Dallas is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.62, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a FC Dallas win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.62, 69% model probability, +11.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Austin 31%Draw 24%FC Dallas 45%

31%24%45%

45%

FC Dallas Win

69%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

+11.8%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Austin and FC Dallas. Wins shown from Austin’s perspective: Austin 2 · FC Dallas 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-07-18	FC Dallas	3 – 1	Austin	L
2024-05-12	FC Dallas	2 – 1	Austin	L
2024-03-31	Austin	2 – 1	FC Dallas	W
2023-08-27	FC Dallas	1 – 0	Austin	L
2023-06-22	Austin	3 – 0	FC Dallas	W

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Austin at 31% to win and FC Dallas at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a FC Dallas win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
FC Dallas Win	45%	@ 2.28	+3.3%
Austin Win	31%	@ 2.80	-13.1%
Draw	24%	@ 3.65	-13.6%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FC Dallas or Draw at 1.42 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
FC Dallas or Draw	70%	@ 1.42	-0.4%
Austin or Draw	56%	@ 1.60	-10.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-2.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 69% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	48%	@ 2.55	+21.4%
Over 2.5	69%	@ 1.62	+11.8%
Over 1.5	87%	@ 1.20	+4.4%
Under 3.5	52%	@ 1.50	-21.4%
Under 2.5	31%	@ 2.25	-30.3%
Under 1.5	13%	@ 4.33	-43.8%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	63%	@ 1.50	-5.6%
BTTS No	37%	@ 2.40	-11.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	41%
Dixon-Coles	Away	72%
GradientBoosting	Away	40%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.15 for the home side, 1.46 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-3 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 1-4 (6%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Austin vs FC Dallas?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.62, with 69% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Austin vs FC Dallas?

Our model makes a FC Dallas win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.4-2.2 scoreline for Austin vs FC Dallas.

What is the predicted score for Austin vs FC Dallas?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.39 for Austin and 2.17 for FC Dallas. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Austin and FC Dallas play?

Kick-off is Monday 17 August 2026, 00:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.