Sat 12 Sep1-0Finished

⚽ Ligue 1

Auxerre vs Nice Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Auxerre vs Nice in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Auxerre 1-0 Nice

Auxerre vs Nice finished 1-0. Auxerre won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.33, landed.

Auxerre face Nice in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Auxerre have 2 wins from their last 5, while Nice have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Auxerre won 3, Nice won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Auxerre win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Auxerre vs Nice with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.33

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.37 – 1.21 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.6%	9.2%	5.5%	2.2%	0.7%
1	10.4%	12.6%	7.6%	3.1%	0.9%
2	7.1%	8.6%	5.2%	2.1%	0.6%
3	3.2%	3.9%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.1%	1.3%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Auxerre winDrawNice win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Auxerre vs Nice comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Auxerre win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Auxerre 36%Draw 34%Nice 30%

36%34%30%

36%

Auxerre Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Auxerre and Nice. Wins shown from Auxerre’s perspective: Auxerre 3 · 1 drawn · Nice 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-12	Auxerre	1 – 0	Nice	W
2026-05-10	Auxerre	2 – 1	Nice	W
2025-08-23	Nice	3 – 1	Auxerre	L
2025-03-14	Nice	1 – 1	Auxerre	D
2024-08-18	Auxerre	2 – 1	Nice	W

📈 Recent form

Auxerre

Auxerre come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Brest. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Lyon.

WAuxerre 2-1 BrestLigue 1
WAuxerre 1-0 NiceLigue 1
LLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
LAuxerre 1-3 AngersLigue 1
LLens 5-2 AuxerreLigue 1

Nice

Nice come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Lille. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Auxerre.

WNice 2-1 LilleLigue 1
LAuxerre 1-0 NiceLigue 1
DNice 1-1 Le MansLigue 1
LParis FC 3-0 NiceLigue 1
DNice 0-0 LorientLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Auxerre

A. DiousseKnee Injury
S. FofanaGroin Injury
B. OkohKnee Injury
M. SenayaInjury
T. SiweMuscle Injury

Nice

L. AbergelKnee Injury
M. BombitoLeg Injury
A. MendyKnee Injury
M. SansonSurgery

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Auxerre at 36% to win and Nice at 30%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes an Auxerre win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Auxerre Win	36%	36%	@ 2.62
Draw	34%	29%	@ 3.30
Nice Win	30%	35%	@ 2.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Auxerre or Draw at 1.40 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Auxerre or Draw	66%	65%	@ 1.40
Nice or Draw	60%	64%	@ 1.44

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	72%	@ 1.33
Over 1.5	73%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	52%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	48%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	27%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	26%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	47%	45%	@ 2.05

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Auxerre or Nice is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Auxerre +1.5	85%	83%	1.14
Nice +1.75	85%	86%	1.10
Nice +1.5	82%	82%	1.16
Auxerre +1.25	80%	81%	1.17
Nice +1.25	76%	80%	1.18
Auxerre +1	76%	–	1.20
Nice +1	71%	78%	1.23
Auxerre +0.75	71%	72%	1.33
Auxerre +0.5	66%	65%	1.47
Nice +0.75	66%	70%	1.37
Nice +0.5	60%	63%	1.52
Auxerre +0.25	59%	59%	1.61
Nice +0.25	54%	57%	1.68
Auxerre 0	53%	51%	1.89
Nice 0	47%	49%	2.00
Auxerre -0.25	46%	43%	@ 2.23
Nice -0.25	41%	41%	2.35
Auxerre -0.5	40%	37%	@ 2.55
Auxerre -0.75	34%	30%	@ 3.13
Nice -0.5	34%	35%	2.73
Nice -0.75	29%	28%	3.38
Auxerre -1	29%	22%	@ 4.33
Auxerre -1.25	24%	20%	@ 4.65
Nice -1.25	20%	19%	5.00
Auxerre -1.5	18%	18%	5.25
Auxerre -1.75	15%	14%	@ 7.00
Nice -1.5	15%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

Auxerre 37%Draw 29%Nice 35%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Auxerre vs Nice?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Auxerre vs Nice?

Our model makes an Auxerre win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline for Auxerre vs Nice.

What is the predicted score for Auxerre vs Nice?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for Auxerre and 1.21 for Nice. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Auxerre and Nice play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.