⚽ Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Result: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.27, did not land.
AZ Alkmaar face Willem II in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: AZ Alkmaar have 4 wins from their last 4, while Willem II have no wins from their last 4. In their last 3 meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 1, Willem II won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 76%, projecting a 2.6-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 8.0% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 69% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 76%. Goals lean over 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points yes (58%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II. Wins shown from AZ Alkmaar’s perspective: AZ Alkmaar 1 · 1 drawn · Willem II 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 – 1 | Willem II | D |
| 2025-02-02 | Willem II | 0 – 2 | AZ Alkmaar | W |
| 2024-11-10 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 – 2 | Willem II | L |
📈 Recent form
AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Go Ahead Eagles. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sunderland.
- WAZ Alkmaar 1-0 TelstarEredivisie
- LSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
- DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
- WHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
Willem II come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Fortuna Sittard.
- LWillem II 0-1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- LAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
- DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
- LWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- D. KasiusGroin Injury
- S. ResinkKnee Injury
- K. SmitInjury
- A. CulumFoot Injury
- T. Didillon HodlHamstring Injury
- A. LachkarGroin Injury
- J. SchuurmanKnock
- A. ZarroukSurgery
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices AZ Alkmaar at 76% to win and Willem II at 10%, with the draw at 14%. Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 76% | 82% | @ 1.14 |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | @ 8.00 |
| Willem II Win | 10% | 6% | @ 15.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AZ Alkmaar or Draw at 1.01 (90% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar or Draw | 90% | 94% | @ 1.01 |
| Willem II or Draw | 26% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.6-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 69% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 89% | @ 1.06 |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Under 3.5 | 53% | 45% | @ 2.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 55% | @ 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
| Under 1.5 | 13% | 11% | @ 8.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 51% | @ 1.82 |
| BTTS No | 42% | 49% | @ 1.88 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when AZ Alkmaar or Willem II is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar -0.25 | 78% | 86% | 1.10 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.5 | 74% | 82% | 1.16 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.75 | 69% | 80% | 1.18 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1 | 63% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Willem II +2 | 60% | 42% | @ 2.27 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.25 | 57% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Willem II +1.75 | 54% | 37% | @ 2.53 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.5 | 51% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Willem II +1.5 | 49% | 34% | @ 2.81 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.75 | 46% | 63% | 1.51 |
| Willem II +1.25 | 43% | 27% | @ 3.48 |
| AZ Alkmaar -2 | 40% | 58% | 1.65 |
| Willem II +1 | 37% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
| Willem II +0.75 | 31% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Willem II +0.5 | 26% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Willem II +0.25 | 22% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 69% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 76%. It projects an expected 2.6-1.0 scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.56 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.99 for Willem II. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do AZ Alkmaar and Willem II play?
Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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