vs
⚽ Brazilian Série A
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Friday 17 July 2026, 22:30 UTC.
Result: Bahia 2-0 Chapecoense-sc
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc finished 2-0. Bahia won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Chapecoense-sc Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.35, was void (stake returned).
Bahia face Chapecoense-sc in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Friday 17 July 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Bahia have 1 win from their last 5, while Chapecoense-sc have 0 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Bahia won 2, Chapecoense-sc won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.8-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Chapecoense-sc Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.35, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a Bahia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.53 (-5.2% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Bahia at 51% to win and Chapecoense-sc at 22%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc Win | 22% | 6.20 | +33.9% |
| Draw | 27% | 4.60 | +25.8% |
| Bahia Win | 51% | 1.45 | -25.9% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Chapecoense-sc or Draw at 2.65 (49% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc or Draw | 49% | 2.65 | +29.7% |
| Bahia or Draw | 78% | 1.11 | -13.0% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.35 | +9.7% |
| Under 1.5 | 21% | 4.75 | -1.3% |
| Under 3.5 | 62% | 1.53 | -5.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 1.18 | -6.5% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 2.45 | -6.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.57 | -16.3% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 48% | 2.05 | -2.3% |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.70 | -11.1% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Bahia or Chapecoense-sc is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc -0.5 | 48% | 5.90 | +181.4% |
| Chapecoense-sc -0.25 | 42% | 5.50 | +130.0% |
| Chapecoense-sc +0.25 | 30% | 3.58 | +7.8% |
| Bahia +0.5 | 76% | 1.13 | -14.4% |
| Bahia +0.25 | 70% | 1.15 | -19.6% |
| Bahia -0.25 | 58% | 1.30 | -24.4% |
| Bahia +0 | 64% | 1.17 | -25.1% |
| Bahia -0.5 | 52% | 1.43 | -25.5% |
| Bahia -0.75 | 46% | 1.53 | -28.9% |
| Chapecoense-sc +0.5 | 24% | 2.84 | -31.2% |
| Bahia -1 | 41% | 1.69 | -31.4% |
| Bahia -1.25 | 35% | 1.96 | -31.9% |
| Bahia -2 | 21% | 3.19 | -33.2% |
| Bahia -1.5 | 29% | 2.17 | -37.3% |
| Bahia -1.75 | 25% | 2.52 | -37.4% |
| Chapecoense-sc +0.75 | 20% | 2.51 | -48.6% |
| Chapecoense-sc +1 | 17% | 2.17 | -63.7% |
| Chapecoense-sc +1.25 | 13% | 1.91 | -75.1% |
| Chapecoense-sc +1.5 | 9% | 1.66 | -84.5% |
| Chapecoense-sc +1.75 | 8% | 1.52 | -88.3% |
| Chapecoense-sc +2 | 6% | 1.35 | -91.8% |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our main pick is Chapecoense-sc Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 3.5 goals at 1.53 (-5.2% value).
Who is the favourite for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 1.76 for Bahia and 1.12 for Chapecoense-sc. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Bahia and Chapecoense-sc play?
Kick-off is Friday 17 July 2026, 22:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
More predictions
Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.