⚽ Brazilian Série A
Bahia vs Chapecoense Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bahia vs Chapecoense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Friday 17 July 2026, 22:30 UTC.
Result: Bahia 2-0 Chapecoense
Bahia vs Chapecoense finished 2-0. Bahia won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Chapecoense Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.35, was void (stake returned).
Bahia face Chapecoense in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Friday 17 July 2026, 22:30 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Bahia won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 2.2-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bahia vs Chapecoense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 10.7% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 7.9% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Bahia vs Chapecoense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Chapecoense Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bahia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Bahia and Chapecoense. Wins shown from Bahia’s perspective: Bahia 1 · 1 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Chapecoense | 3 – 3 | Bahia | D |
| 2026-07-17 | Bahia | 2 – 0 | Chapecoense | W |
📈 Recent form
Bahia come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Athletico Paranaense.
- LAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- WBahia 2-1 RemoBrazilian Série A
- WRB Bragantino 2-3 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- WBahia 3-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
- WVitória 0-2 BahiaBrazilian Série A
Chapecoense come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Internacional.
- DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- LChapecoense 1-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
- WCorinthians 1-2 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- LGrêmio 3-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- WChapecoense 1-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Leo VieiraInjury
- AndersonInjury
- Joao PauloInjury
- Mauricio GarcezNot in squad
- Max AlvesInjury
- Rafael CarvalheiraNot in squad
- Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury
- Victor CaetanoCalf Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Bahia at 51% to win and Chapecoense at 22%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia Win | 51% | 66% | @ 1.41 |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | @ 4.60 |
| Chapecoense Win | 22% | 13% | @ 7.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bahia or Draw at 1.09 (76% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia or Draw | 76% | 87% | @ 1.09 |
| Chapecoense or Draw | 48% | 34% | @ 2.70 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 81% | @ 1.16 |
| Under 3.5 | 62% | 62% | @ 1.54 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 40% | @ 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 19% | @ 4.90 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 54% | @ 1.71 |
| BTTS No | 48% | 46% | @ 2.02 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Bahia or Chapecoense is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense +2 | 79% | 70% | @ 1.35 |
| Bahia +0.5 | 76% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Chapecoense +1.75 | 75% | 62% | @ 1.52 |
| Chapecoense +1.5 | 71% | 57% | @ 1.66 |
| Bahia +0.25 | 70% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Chapecoense +1.25 | 65% | 51% | @ 1.91 |
| Bahia 0 | 64% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Chapecoense +1 | 59% | 44% | @ 2.17 |
| Bahia -0.25 | 58% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Chapecoense +0.75 | 54% | 38% | @ 2.51 |
| Bahia -0.5 | 52% | 67% | 1.43 |
| Chapecoense +0.5 | 48% | 33% | @ 2.84 |
| Bahia -0.75 | 46% | 62% | 1.53 |
| Chapecoense +0.25 | 42% | 27% | @ 3.58 |
| Bahia -1 | 41% | 56% | 1.69 |
| Chapecoense 0 | 36% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Bahia -1.25 | 35% | 49% | 1.96 |
| Chapecoense -0.25 | 30% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Bahia -1.5 | 29% | 43% | 2.17 |
| Bahia -1.75 | 25% | 38% | 2.52 |
| Chapecoense -0.5 | 24% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Bahia -2 | 21% | 30% | 3.19 |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bahia vs Chapecoense?
Our model's main pick is Chapecoense Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Bahia vs Chapecoense?
Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 2.2-0.9 scoreline for Bahia vs Chapecoense.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Chapecoense?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.21 for Bahia and 0.92 for Chapecoense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Bahia and Chapecoense play?
Kick-off is Friday 17 July 2026, 22:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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