⚽ UEFA Europa League
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Celje
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje finished 2-0. Bayer Leverkusen won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.26, did not land.
Bayer Leverkusen face Celje in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 57%, projecting a 2.9-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.26, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 57%. Goals lean over 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points yes (61%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Union Berlin. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at SV Elversberg.
- WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 CeljeUEFA Europa League
- DFC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- WBayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- LSV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Celje come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Bayer Leverkusen.
- DMura 0-0 Celje1. SNL
- LBayer Leverkusen 2-0 CeljeUEFA Europa League
- LBravo 2-1 Celje1. SNL
- LCelje 0-1 Koper1. SNL
- LBrinje-Grosuplje 4-1 Celje1. SNL
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- V. BonifaceOff the roster
- M. CulbreathInjury
- G. DoueMuscle Injury
- K. EichhornIllness
- J. HofmannOff the roster
- I. MazaIllness
- T. OermannOff the roster
- N. TellaInjury
- A. KotnikSuspended (red card)
- J. PisekKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Bayer Leverkusen at 57% to win and Celje at 18%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen Win | 57% | 80% | @ 1.19 |
| Draw | 25% | 13% | @ 7.50 |
| Celje Win | 18% | 7% | @ 13.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.03 (81% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen or Draw | 81% | 93% | @ 1.03 |
| Celje or Draw | 42% | 20% | @ 4.60 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.9-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 75% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 89% | @ 1.06 |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | @ 1.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
| Under 3.5 | 45% | 44% | @ 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 10% | 11% | @ 8.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 55% | @ 1.68 |
| BTTS No | 39% | 45% | @ 2.08 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Bayer Leverkusen or Celje is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celje +2 | 75% | 37% | @ 2.52 |
| Celje +1.75 | 71% | 33% | @ 2.83 |
| Celje +1.5 | 66% | 30% | @ 3.11 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -0.25 | 64% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Celje +1.25 | 60% | 26% | @ 3.57 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 | 58% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 | 52% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Celje +0.75 | 48% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -1 | 46% | – | 1.21 |
| Celje +0.5 | 42% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -1.25 | 40% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Celje +0.25 | 36% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -1.5 | 34% | 70% | 1.35 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -1.75 | 29% | 67% | 1.41 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -2 | 25% | 63% | 1.50 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje?
Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.26, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje?
Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 57%. It projects an expected 2.9-1.0 scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje.
What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.90 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.04 for Celje. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Bayer Leverkusen and Celje play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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