⚽ Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Result: Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin finished 4-0. Bayer Leverkusen won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Bayer Leverkusen face Union Berlin in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Bayer Leverkusen have 2 wins from their last 5, while Union Berlin have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 3, Union Berlin won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 63%, projecting a 2.2-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 9.9% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 7.4% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Union Berlin with a +2 start at odds 1.38, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 63%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (56%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin. Wins shown from Bayer Leverkusen’s perspective: Bayer Leverkusen 3 · 1 drawn · Union Berlin 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 – 0 | Union Berlin | W |
| 2026-02-21 | Union Berlin | 1 – 0 | Bayer Leverkusen | L |
| 2025-10-04 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 – 0 | Union Berlin | W |
| 2025-04-12 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 – 0 | Union Berlin | D |
| 2024-11-30 | Union Berlin | 1 – 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | W |
📈 Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Union Berlin. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at SV Elversberg.
- WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 CeljeUEFA Europa League
- DFC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- WBayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- LSV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Union Berlin come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 19. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Eintracht Braunschweig. Their most recent defeat was 0-7 at Bayern Munich.
- LBayern Munich 7-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- LUnion Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- LBayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- DUnion Berlin 3-3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- WEintracht Braunschweig 2-4 Union BerlinDFB Pokal
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- E. Ben SeghirThigh Injury
- M. CulbreathInjury
- G. DoueInjury
- K. EichhornIllness
- N. TellaInjury
- M. TerrierMuscle Injury
- O. BurkeAchilles Tendon Injury
- M. FriedrichInjury
- A. IlicIllness
- A. MarkgrafKnee Injury
- S. NsokiMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Bayer Leverkusen at 63% to win and Union Berlin at 13%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen Win | 63% | 66% | @ 1.41 |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | @ 4.80 |
| Union Berlin Win | 13% | 14% | @ 6.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.10 (85% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen or Draw | 85% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Union Berlin or Draw | 35% | 34% | @ 2.80 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 66% | @ 1.42 |
| Under 3.5 | 60% | 55% | @ 1.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 45% | @ 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 34% | @ 2.80 |
| Under 1.5 | 17% | 15% | @ 6.10 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 59% | @ 1.58 |
| BTTS No | 44% | 41% | @ 2.25 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Bayer Leverkusen or Union Berlin is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen +0.75 | 88% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Bayer Leverkusen +0.5 | 85% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Bayer Leverkusen +0.25 | 80% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Bayer Leverkusen 0 | 75% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Union Berlin +2 | 70% | 69% | 1.38 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -0.25 | 70% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Union Berlin +1.75 | 65% | 61% | @ 1.55 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 | 65% | 66% | 1.45 |
| Union Berlin +1.5 | 60% | 56% | @ 1.71 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 | 58% | 61% | 1.55 |
| Union Berlin +1.25 | 54% | 50% | @ 1.93 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -1 | 52% | 57% | 1.69 |
| Union Berlin +1 | 48% | 43% | @ 2.21 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -1.25 | 46% | 50% | 1.95 |
| Union Berlin +0.75 | 42% | 39% | @ 2.47 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -1.5 | 40% | 44% | 2.15 |
| Union Berlin +0.5 | 35% | 34% | 2.77 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -1.75 | 35% | 39% | 2.47 |
| Union Berlin +0.25 | 30% | 28% | @ 3.46 |
| Bayer Leverkusen -2 | 30% | 31% | 3.09 |
| Union Berlin 0 | 25% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Union Berlin -0.25 | 20% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Union Berlin -0.5 | 15% | 16% | 5.90 |
| Union Berlin -0.75 | 12% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our model's main pick is Union Berlin with a +2 start at odds 1.38, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.
Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 63%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin.
What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.22 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.99 for Union Berlin. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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