Sat 12 Sep1-0Finished

⚽ Championship

Bolton vs Cardiff Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bolton vs Cardiff in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Bolton 1-0 Cardiff

Bolton vs Cardiff finished 1-0. Bolton won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Bolton or Draw at 1.47, landed.

Bolton face Cardiff in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Bolton have 1 win from their last 5, while Cardiff have no wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Bolton won 1, Cardiff won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bolton win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.7-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bolton vs Cardiff with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Bolton +1 @ 1.26

83%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.72 – 1.11 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.9%	6.6%	3.6%	1.3%	0.4%
1	10.2%	11.3%	6.3%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.7%	9.7%	5.4%	2.0%	0.6%
3	5.0%	5.6%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
4	2.2%	2.4%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Bolton winDrawCardiff win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Bolton vs Cardiff comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Bolton with a +1 start at odds 1.26, with a 83% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bolton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Bolton 50%Draw 28%Cardiff 23%

50%28%23%

50%

Bolton Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Bolton and Cardiff. Wins shown from Bolton’s perspective: Bolton 1 · Cardiff 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-12	Bolton	1 – 0	Cardiff	W
2026-04-11	Cardiff	2 – 0	Bolton	L

📈 Recent form

Bolton

Bolton come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 4-3 at Norwich. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to West Ham.

WNorwich 3-4 BoltonChampionship
WBolton 1-0 CardiffChampionship
LBolton 2-3 West HamChampionship
LMillwall 4-0 BoltonChampionship
LSheffield Utd 3-2 BoltonChampionship

Cardiff

Cardiff come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Charlton. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Bolton.

WCardiff 3-1 CharltonChampionship
LBolton 1-0 CardiffChampionship
DCardiff 1-1 Stoke CityChampionship
LPortsmouth 2-0 CardiffChampionship
LQPR 2-1 CardiffChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Bolton

L. BruntInjury
L. StephensonInjury

Cardiff

C. ChambersKnee Injury
R. ColwillHealth problems
I. DaviesInjury
W. FishHernia
D. LawlorMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Bolton at 50% to win and Cardiff at 23%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Bolton win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bolton Win	50%	37%	@ 2.50
Draw	28%	27%	@ 3.50
Cardiff Win	23%	36%	@ 2.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bolton or Draw at 1.47 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bolton or Draw	76%	64%	@ 1.47
Cardiff or Draw	49%	63%	@ 1.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	79%	@ 1.18
Under 3.5	68%	64%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	54%	57%	@ 1.65
Under 2.5	46%	43%	@ 2.17
Over 3.5	32%	36%	@ 2.60
Under 1.5	23%	21%	@ 4.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	61%	@ 1.52
BTTS No	45%	39%	@ 2.38

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Bolton or Cardiff is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bolton +1.75	93%	85%	@ 1.12
Bolton +1.5	91%	80%	@ 1.18
Bolton +1.25	87%	79%	@ 1.20
Bolton +1	83%	76%	@ 1.26
Bolton +0.75	80%	68%	@ 1.40
Cardiff +1.75	77%	85%	1.12
Bolton +0.5	76%	62%	@ 1.53
Cardiff +1.5	73%	80%	1.18
Bolton +0.25	70%	56%	@ 1.70
Cardiff +1.25	67%	79%	1.20
Bolton 0	63%	48%	@ 2.01
Cardiff +1	61%	–	1.23
Bolton -0.25	57%	41%	@ 2.30
Cardiff +0.75	55%	70%	1.35
Bolton -0.5	51%	37%	@ 2.60
Cardiff +0.5	49%	63%	1.50
Bolton -0.75	45%	30%	@ 3.19
Cardiff +0.25	43%	59%	1.63
Cardiff 0	37%	52%	1.86
Bolton -1.25	33%	21%	@ 4.40
Cardiff -0.25	30%	44%	2.19
Bolton -1.5	27%	20%	@ 4.80
Cardiff -0.5	24%	38%	2.50
Bolton -1.75	23%	15%	@ 6.40
Cardiff -0.75	20%	32%	2.98
Cardiff -1	17%	24%	3.89
Cardiff -1.25	13%	21%	4.40
Cardiff -1.5	9%	20%	4.65
Cardiff -1.75	7%	15%	6.25

📈 How the market moved

Bolton 35%Draw 27%Cardiff 38%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bolton vs Cardiff?

Our model's main pick is Bolton with a +1 start at odds 1.26, with a 83% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Bolton vs Cardiff?

Our model makes a Bolton win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline for Bolton vs Cardiff.

What is the predicted score for Bolton vs Cardiff?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.72 for Bolton and 1.11 for Cardiff. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Bolton and Cardiff play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.