⚽ Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Result: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 finished 3-0. Borussia Dortmund won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, both teams to score at 1.75, did not land.
Borussia Dortmund face SC Paderborn 07 in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Borussia Dortmund have 4 wins from their last 5, while SC Paderborn 07 have no wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 71%, projecting a 2.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is a Borussia Dortmund win at odds 1.25, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 71%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (63%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Borussia Dortmund come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at HEBC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WVfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- WBorussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- WBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- WHoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- WHEBC 0-5 Borussia DortmundDFB Pokal
SC Paderborn 07 come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Hoffenheim. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Borussia Dortmund.
- WSC Paderborn 07 3-1 HoffenheimBundesliga
- LBorussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- LSC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- DFSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- WPhönix Lübeck 2-4 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- E. CanKnee Injury
- S. InacioSuspended (red card)
- M. KabaInjury
- K. KaretsasHealth problems
- G. KonstanteliasKnee Injury
- J. LermaMuscle Injury
- F. ManeMuscle Injury
- N. Awortwie-GrantKnee Injury
- L. EickelBack Injury
- T. GayretKnee Injury
- S. KlaasMuscle Injury
- S. MichelMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Borussia Dortmund at 71% to win and SC Paderborn 07 at 12%, with the draw at 17%. Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund Win | 71% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| SC Paderborn 07 Win | 12% | 10% | @ 9.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Borussia Dortmund or Draw at 1.07 (88% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund or Draw | 88% | 90% | @ 1.07 |
| SC Paderborn 07 or Draw | 30% | 24% | @ 3.75 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 | 54% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 53% | @ 1.75 |
| BTTS No | 37% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Borussia Dortmund or SC Paderborn 07 is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund -0.25 | 75% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Borussia Dortmund -0.5 | 70% | 76% | 1.23 |
| Borussia Dortmund -0.75 | 64% | – | 1.26 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +2 | 64% | 54% | @ 1.78 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +1.75 | 59% | 47% | @ 2.04 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1 | 58% | 73% | 1.31 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +1.5 | 54% | 42% | @ 2.27 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.25 | 52% | 64% | 1.48 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +1.25 | 48% | 36% | @ 2.67 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.5 | 46% | 58% | 1.64 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +1 | 42% | 27% | @ 3.46 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.75 | 41% | 53% | 1.80 |
| Borussia Dortmund -2 | 36% | 46% | 2.06 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.5 | 30% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.25 | 25% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model's main pick is a Borussia Dortmund win at odds 1.25, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 71%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.2 scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07.
What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.24 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.23 for SC Paderborn 07. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 play?
Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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