Sat 17 Oct1-0Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Botafogo vs Chapecoense Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Botafogo vs Chapecoense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 21:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense

Botafogo vs Chapecoense finished 1-0. Botafogo won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Botafogo face Chapecoense in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 21:00 UTC. Recent form: Botafogo have 1 win from their last 5, while Chapecoense have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Botafogo won 3, Chapecoense won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 62%, projecting a 2.2-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Botafogo vs Chapecoense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Botafogo -0.5 @ 1.31

72%Bookmaker odds imply 72%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.18 – 1.00 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.2%	4.2%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
1	9.1%	9.1%	4.5%	1.5%	0.4%
2	9.9%	9.9%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	7.2%	7.2%	3.6%	1.2%	0.3%
4	3.9%	3.9%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-0

Botafogo winDrawChapecoense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Chapecoense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is Botafogo to win at odds 1.31, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Botafogo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 62%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Botafogo 62%Draw 24%Chapecoense 15%

62%24%15%

62%

Botafogo Win

62%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Botafogo and Chapecoense. Wins shown from Botafogo’s perspective: Botafogo 3 · Chapecoense 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-17	Botafogo	1 – 0	Chapecoense	W
2026-05-14	Chapecoense	2 – 0	Botafogo	L
2026-04-21	Botafogo	1 – 0	Chapecoense	W
2026-04-18	Chapecoense	1 – 4	Botafogo	W

📈 Recent form

Botafogo

Botafogo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Chapecoense. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Vasco da Gama.

WBotafogo 1-0 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
DCoritiba 1-1 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
LMirassol 2-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
WBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A

Chapecoense

Chapecoense come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Botafogo.

LBotafogo 1-0 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
LChapecoense 1-4 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LVitória 4-0 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
DAtletico Nacional 1-1 ChapecoenseFriendlies Clubs
DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Botafogo

Arthur ChavesNot in squad
J. BarreraAnkle Injury
Kaio PantaleaoKnee Injury
L. MonzonNot in squad

Chapecoense

HeitorHamstring Injury
MarcinhoSuspended (cards)
Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury
Vinicius BalieiroKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Botafogo at 62% to win and Chapecoense at 15%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo Win	62%	71%	@ 1.33
Draw	24%	19%	@ 5.00
Chapecoense Win	15%	10%	@ 9.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Botafogo or Draw at 1.07 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo or Draw	84%	90%	@ 1.07
Chapecoense or Draw	38%	29%	@ 3.25

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	62%	62%	@ 1.50
Under 3.5	61%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	39%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 2.5	38%	38%	@ 2.50
Under 1.5	17%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	44%	48%	@ 1.95

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Botafogo or Chapecoense is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo +0.25	78%	86%	1.10
Botafogo 0	73%	86%	1.10
Chapecoense +2	72%	63%	@ 1.51
Botafogo -0.25	68%	79%	1.20
Chapecoense +1.75	67%	56%	@ 1.71
Botafogo -0.5	62%	72%	1.31
Chapecoense +1.5	62%	50%	@ 1.93
Botafogo -0.75	56%	69%	1.38
Chapecoense +1.25	56%	43%	@ 2.19
Botafogo -1	50%	65%	1.48
Chapecoense +1	50%	35%	@ 2.70
Botafogo -1.25	44%	57%	1.69
Chapecoense +0.75	44%	31%	@ 3.11
Botafogo -1.5	38%	50%	1.93
Chapecoense +0.5	38%	28%	@ 3.46
Botafogo -1.75	33%	44%	2.14
Chapecoense +0.25	32%	21%	@ 4.40
Botafogo -2	28%	37%	2.57
Chapecoense 0	27%	14%	@ 7.00
Chapecoense -0.25	22%	14%	@ 7.00

📈 How the market moved

Botafogo 72%Draw 18%Chapecoense 10%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Chapecoense?

Our pick is Botafogo to win at odds 1.31, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Chapecoense?

Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 62%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline for Botafogo vs Chapecoense.

What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Chapecoense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.18 for Botafogo and 1.00 for Chapecoense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Botafogo and Chapecoense play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 21:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.