⚽ Brazilian Série A

Botafogo vs Gremio Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Botafogo vs Gremio in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 22:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Botafogo face Gremio in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Botafogo have 0 wins from their last 5, while Gremio have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Botafogo won 2, Gremio won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 1.7-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Botafogo vs Gremio with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Botafogo +0.25 @ 1.26

75%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.73 – 1.04 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	6.5%	3.4%	1.2%	0.3%
1	10.8%	11.3%	5.9%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.4%	9.8%	5.1%	1.8%	0.5%
3	5.4%	5.6%	2.9%	1.0%	0.3%
4	2.3%	2.4%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Botafogo winDrawGremio win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Gremio is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Botafogo with a +0.25 start at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Botafogo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Botafogo to win by 1+ goals at odds 2.04 (+6.5% model value).

Best value

Botafogo -0.75 at odds 2.04, 52% model probability, +6.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Botafogo 55%Draw 29%Gremio 16%

55%29%16%

55%

Botafogo Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

+6.5%

Best value: Botafogo -0.75

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Botafogo and Gremio. Wins shown from Botafogo’s perspective: Botafogo 2 · 1 drawn · Gremio 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-09-29	Botafogo	0 – 0	Gremio	D
2024-06-16	Gremio	1 – 2	Botafogo	W
2023-11-09	Botafogo	3 – 4	Gremio	L
2023-07-09	Gremio	0 – 2	Botafogo	W

📈 Recent form

Botafogo

Botafogo come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Cienciano. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Flamengo.

DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 3-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 2-3 Atletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
WBotafogo 1-0 CiencianoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LVitoria 1-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A

Gremio

Gremio come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Vitoria.

LVitoria 1-0 GremioBrazilian Série A
WGremio 3-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil
WGremio 3-1 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A
DInternacional 0-0 GremioCopa Do Brasil
LRB Bragantino 1-0 GremioBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Botafogo at 55% to win and Gremio at 16%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	29%	@ 3.80	+9.3%
Botafogo Win	55%	@ 1.73	-4.1%
Gremio Win	16%	@ 4.50	-28.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Botafogo or Draw at 1.19 (81% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Botafogo or Draw	81%	@ 1.19	-3.5%
Gremio or Draw	42%	@ 2.05	-14.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	70%	@ 1.36	-5.0%
Under 2.5	48%	@ 1.98	-5.6%
Over 1.5	76%	@ 1.23	-6.1%
Over 2.5	52%	@ 1.79	-6.3%
Under 1.5	24%	@ 3.95	-6.7%
Over 3.5	30%	@ 3.05	-8.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	46%	@ 2.02	-6.6%
BTTS Yes	54%	@ 1.71	-8.1%

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Botafogo or Gremio is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Botafogo -2	25%	@ 5.50	+35.6%
Botafogo -1.25	40%	@ 2.81	+11.8%
Botafogo -1	46%	@ 2.39	+9.8%
Botafogo -1.75	29%	@ 3.70	+7.9%
Botafogo -0.75	52%	@ 2.04	+6.5%
Botafogo -1.5	34%	@ 3.15	+6.2%
Botafogo -0.5	58%	@ 1.73	+1.1%
Botafogo -0.25	64%	1.55	-0.4%
Gremio 0	30%	3.29	-0.4%
Botafogo +0.5	81%	1.22	-1.4%
Gremio -0.75	16%	6.25	-1.7%
Botafogo +0.25	75%	1.26	-4.6%
Botafogo +0.75	84%	1.12	-5.6%
Gremio -0.25	25%	3.81	-6.3%
Botafogo 0	70%	1.34	-6.5%
Gremio +1.5	66%	1.36	-9.8%
Gremio +1.75	71%	1.26	-10.7%
Gremio +0.25	36%	2.44	-12.5%
Gremio +0.75	48%	1.82	-13.0%
Gremio +2	75%	1.15	-13.3%
Gremio +1.25	60%	1.43	-14.0%
Gremio +0.5	42%	2.06	-14.3%
Gremio +1	54%	1.57	-15.4%
Gremio -0.5	19%	4.32	-18.6%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Gremio?

Our main pick is Botafogo with a +0.25 start at odds 1.26, with 75% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Botafogo to win by 1+ goals at 2.04 (+6.5% value).

Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Gremio?

Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline for Botafogo vs Gremio.

What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Gremio?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.73 for Botafogo and 1.04 for Gremio. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Botafogo and Gremio play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.