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⚽ Serie A

Cagliari vs Bologna Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Cagliari vs Bologna in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Cagliari face Bologna in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Cagliari have 3 wins from their last 5, while Bologna have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Cagliari won 1, Bologna won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bologna win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.2-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Cagliari vs Bologna with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.25

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.17 – 1.32 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	10.9%	7.2%	3.2%	1.0%
1	9.7%	12.8%	8.5%	3.7%	1.2%
2	5.7%	7.5%	4.9%	2.2%	0.7%
3	2.2%	2.9%	1.9%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.6%	0.9%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Cagliari winDrawBologna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Cagliari vs Bologna comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bologna win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Cagliari 30%Draw 30%Bologna 40%

30%30%40%

40%

Bologna Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Cagliari and Bologna. Wins shown from Cagliari’s perspective: Cagliari 1 · 1 drawn · Bologna 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-03	Bologna	0 – 0	Cagliari	D
2025-10-19	Cagliari	0 – 2	Bologna	L
2025-03-02	Bologna	2 – 1	Cagliari	L
2024-10-29	Cagliari	0 – 2	Bologna	L
2024-01-14	Cagliari	2 – 1	Bologna	W

📈 Recent form

Cagliari

Cagliari come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Udinese. Their only defeat in that run was 0-4 at Monza.

LMonza 4-0 CagliariSerie A
DCagliari 1-1 JuventusSerie A
WUdinese 0-1 CagliariSerie A
WAtalanta 1-2 CagliariSerie A
WCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A

Bologna

Bologna come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Lecce. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Inter.

LBologna 1-3 InterSerie A
WLecce 1-2 BolognaSerie A
DBologna 1-1 TorinoSerie A
LNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
DBologna 2-2 SassuoloSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 1 player listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Cagliari

Riyad IdrissiJumpers Knee

Bologna

No absentees reported.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Cagliari at 30% to win and Bologna at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Bologna win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bologna Win	40%	39%	@ 2.38
Cagliari Win	30%	30%	@ 3.10
Draw	30%	30%	@ 3.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bologna or Draw at 1.36 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bologna or Draw	68%	70%	@ 1.36
Cagliari or Draw	58%	61%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	76%	76%	@ 1.25
Over 1.5	71%	70%	@ 1.36
Under 2.5	55%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 2.5	45%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 1.5	29%	30%	@ 3.20
Over 3.5	24%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS No	50%	50%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Cagliari 30%Draw 31%Bologna 39%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cagliari vs Bologna?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Cagliari vs Bologna?

Our model makes a Bologna win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.3 scoreline for Cagliari vs Bologna.

What is the predicted score for Cagliari vs Bologna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.17 for Cagliari and 1.32 for Bologna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Cagliari and Bologna play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.