⚽ Serie A
Cagliari vs Lecce Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Cagliari vs Lecce in the Serie A. Kick-off Monday 07 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Result: Cagliari 1-0 Lecce
Cagliari vs Lecce finished 1-0. Cagliari won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Lecce Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at 1.31, was a half-win.
Cagliari face Lecce in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Monday 07 September 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Cagliari have 3 wins from their last 5, while Lecce have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Cagliari won 3, Lecce won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Cagliari win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.3-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Cagliari vs Lecce with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 13.4% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Cagliari vs Lecce comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lecce Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.31, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Cagliari win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points no (56%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Cagliari and Lecce. Wins shown from Cagliari’s perspective: Cagliari 3 · Lecce 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Cagliari | 1 – 0 | Lecce | W |
| 2026-02-16 | Cagliari | 0 – 2 | Lecce | L |
| 2025-09-19 | Lecce | 1 – 2 | Cagliari | W |
| 2025-01-19 | Cagliari | 4 – 1 | Lecce | W |
| 2024-08-31 | Lecce | 1 – 0 | Cagliari | L |
📈 Recent form
Cagliari come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Udinese. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Hellas Verona.
- WUdinese 0-1 CagliariSerie A
- WAtalanta 1-2 CagliariSerie A
- WCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
- LCagliari 1-2 Hellas VeronaCoppa Italia
- LCagliari 0-1 InterSerie A
Lecce come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Venezia. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at AC Milan.
- LAC Milan 3-0 LecceSerie A
- WLecce 3-2 MonzaSerie A
- LCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
- LLecce 0-4 AS RomaSerie A
- WVenezia 0-2 LecceSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- R. IdrissiKnee Injury
- KevinPersonal Reasons
- Y. MinaCalf Injury
- M. NzolaLacking Match Fitness
- Y. SugawaraNot in squad
- Y. TrepyInjury
- W. GeubbelsInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Cagliari at 39% to win and Lecce at 30%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Cagliari win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Win | 39% | 49% | @ 1.91 |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Lecce Win | 30% | 22% | @ 4.30 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cagliari or Draw at 1.20 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari or Draw | 68% | 78% | @ 1.20 |
| Lecce or Draw | 59% | 51% | @ 1.85 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 61% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 81% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 64% | @ 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 62% | @ 1.52 |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 38% | @ 2.45 |
| Under 1.5 | 34% | 36% | @ 2.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 19% | @ 4.90 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 56% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 44% | 44% | @ 2.14 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Cagliari or Lecce is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce +1.75 | 84% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Lecce +1.5 | 80% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Lecce +1.25 | 75% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Cagliari +0.75 | 72% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Lecce +1 | 70% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Cagliari +0.5 | 68% | 77% | 1.24 |
| Lecce +0.75 | 64% | 59% | @ 1.61 |
| Cagliari +0.25 | 61% | 74% | 1.29 |
| Lecce +0.5 | 59% | 52% | @ 1.86 |
| Cagliari 0 | 55% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Lecce +0.25 | 52% | 44% | @ 2.19 |
| Cagliari -0.25 | 48% | 56% | 1.70 |
| Lecce 0 | 45% | 32% | @ 3.04 |
| Cagliari -0.5 | 41% | 48% | 2.02 |
| Lecce -0.25 | 39% | 26% | @ 3.62 |
| Cagliari -0.75 | 36% | 41% | 2.35 |
| Lecce -0.5 | 32% | 23% | @ 4.21 |
| Cagliari -1 | 30% | 31% | 3.08 |
| Lecce -0.75 | 28% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Cagliari -1.25 | 25% | 27% | 3.54 |
| Cagliari -1.5 | 20% | 24% | 3.96 |
| Cagliari -1.75 | 16% | 19% | 5.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our model's main pick is Lecce Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.31, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our model makes a Cagliari win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline for Cagliari vs Lecce.
What is the predicted score for Cagliari vs Lecce?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.27 for Cagliari and 0.98 for Lecce. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Cagliari and Lecce play?
Kick-off is Monday 07 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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CremoneseAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.