⚽ Championship
Cardiff vs Stoke City Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Cardiff vs Stoke City in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 08 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Cardiff 1-1 Stoke City
Cardiff vs Stoke City finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Cardiff face Stoke City in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Tuesday 08 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Cardiff have no wins from their last 4, while Stoke City have 1 win from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Cardiff won 1, Stoke City won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Cardiff win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Cardiff vs Stoke City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 11.2% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Cardiff vs Stoke City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Stoke City with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Cardiff win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Cardiff and Stoke City. Wins shown from Cardiff’s perspective: Cardiff 1 · 3 drawn · Stoke City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Cardiff | 1 – 1 | Stoke City | D |
| 2025-04-12 | Cardiff | 0 – 1 | Stoke City | L |
| 2024-12-14 | Stoke City | 2 – 2 | Cardiff | D |
| 2024-02-24 | Cardiff | 2 – 1 | Stoke City | W |
| 2023-11-04 | Stoke City | 0 – 0 | Cardiff | D |
📈 Recent form
Cardiff come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Charlton. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Bolton.
- WCardiff 3-1 CharltonChampionship
- LBolton 1-0 CardiffChampionship
- DCardiff 1-1 Stoke CityChampionship
- LPortsmouth 2-0 CardiffChampionship
- LQPR 2-1 CardiffChampionship
Stoke City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Charlton. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WStoke City 2-1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- WWatford 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
- DCardiff 1-1 Stoke CityChampionship
- WStoke City 4-0 CharltonChampionship
- WStoke City 1-0 NorwichChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- C. ChambersKnee Injury
- W. FishHernia
- D. LawlorMuscle Injury
- A. AmpahHamstring Injury
- A. CresswellKnee Injury
- S. GallagherInjury
- B. GibsonHead Injury
- S. IngelssonInjury
- B. LawalNot in squad
- J. TchamadeuKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Cardiff at 40% to win and Stoke City at 30%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Cardiff win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff Win | 40% | 44% | @ 2.14 |
| Stoke City Win | 30% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | @ 3.55 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cardiff or Draw at 1.34 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff or Draw | 68% | 70% | @ 1.34 |
| Stoke City or Draw | 58% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 75% | 63% | @ 1.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 79% | @ 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 57% | @ 1.63 |
| Under 1.5 | 28% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 61% | @ 1.52 |
| BTTS No | 48% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Cardiff or Stoke City is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City +2 | 87% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Cardiff +1.5 | 87% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Stoke City +1.75 | 84% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Cardiff +1.25 | 82% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Stoke City +1.5 | 80% | 75% | @ 1.25 |
| Cardiff +1 | 77% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Stoke City +1.25 | 75% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Cardiff +0.75 | 72% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Stoke City +1 | 70% | 69% | 1.38 |
| Cardiff +0.5 | 68% | 69% | 1.35 |
| Stoke City +0.75 | 64% | 61% | 1.55 |
| Cardiff +0.25 | 61% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Stoke City +0.5 | 58% | 55% | 1.71 |
| Cardiff 0 | 55% | 60% | 1.59 |
| Stoke City +0.25 | 52% | 49% | @ 1.99 |
| Cardiff -0.25 | 48% | 51% | 1.89 |
| Stoke City 0 | 45% | 40% | @ 2.34 |
| Cardiff -0.5 | 42% | 45% | 2.10 |
| Stoke City -0.25 | 39% | 34% | @ 2.80 |
| Cardiff -0.75 | 36% | 39% | 2.45 |
| Stoke City -0.5 | 32% | 31% | 3.08 |
| Cardiff -1 | 30% | 31% | 3.10 |
| Stoke City -0.75 | 28% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| Cardiff -1.25 | 25% | 27% | 3.54 |
| Stoke City -1 | 23% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Cardiff -1.5 | 20% | 25% | 3.68 |
| Stoke City -1.25 | 18% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Cardiff -1.75 | 16% | 20% | 4.65 |
| Cardiff -2 | 13% | 14% | 7.00 |
| Stoke City -1.5 | 13% | 14% | 6.60 |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cardiff vs Stoke City?
Our model's main pick is Stoke City with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Stoke City?
Our model makes a Cardiff win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Cardiff vs Stoke City.
What is the predicted score for Cardiff vs Stoke City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.42 for Cardiff and 1.12 for Stoke City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Cardiff and Stoke City play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 08 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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