Mon 17 Aug1-1Finished

⚽ Championship

Cardiff vs Wrexham Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Cardiff vs Wrexham in the Championship. Kick-off Monday 17 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Cardiff 1-1 Wrexham

Cardiff vs Wrexham finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Cardiff face Wrexham in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Monday 17 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Cardiff win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Cardiff vs Wrexham with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.40

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.38 – 1.15 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.0%	9.2%	5.3%	2.0%	0.6%
1	11.0%	12.6%	7.3%	2.8%	0.8%
2	7.6%	8.7%	5.0%	1.9%	0.6%
3	3.5%	4.0%	2.3%	0.9%	0.3%
4	1.2%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Cardiff winDrawWrexham win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Cardiff vs Wrexham comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Cardiff win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Cardiff 36%Draw 30%Wrexham 34%

36%30%34%

36%

Cardiff Win

54%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Cardiff

Cardiff come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Charlton. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Bolton.

WCardiff 3-1 CharltonChampionship
LBolton 1-0 CardiffChampionship
DCardiff 1-1 Stoke CityChampionship
LPortsmouth 2-0 CardiffChampionship
LQPR 2-1 CardiffChampionship

Wrexham

Wrexham come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Millwall. Their only defeat in that run was 0-6 at West Ham.

WWrexham 2-1 SouthamptonChampionship
LWest Ham 6-0 WrexhamChampionship
DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
DSwansea 0-0 WrexhamChampionship
WMillwall 0-3 WrexhamChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Cardiff

W. FishHernia
D. LawlorMuscle Injury

Wrexham

L. CacaceCalf Injury
S. RevanHamstring Injury
B. SheafNot in squad
J. WindassCalf Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Cardiff at 36% to win and Wrexham at 34%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Cardiff win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Cardiff Win	36%	38%	@ 2.43
Wrexham Win	34%	34%	@ 2.75
Draw	30%	28%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cardiff or Draw at 1.43 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Cardiff or Draw	64%	66%	@ 1.43
Wrexham or Draw	62%	62%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	75%	67%	@ 1.40
Over 1.5	72%	77%	@ 1.20
Under 2.5	54%	46%	@ 2.05
Over 2.5	46%	54%	@ 1.72
Under 1.5	28%	23%	@ 4.10
Over 3.5	25%	33%	@ 2.80

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	59%	@ 1.56
BTTS No	49%	41%	@ 2.28

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Cardiff or Wrexham is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Wrexham +1.75	86%	86%	1.11
Cardiff +1.5	84%	–	1.14
Wrexham +1.5	83%	–	1.17
Cardiff +1.25	79%	81%	1.17
Wrexham +1.25	78%	79%	1.20
Cardiff +1	74%	79%	1.21
Wrexham +1	73%	77%	1.24
Cardiff +0.75	69%	72%	1.33
Wrexham +0.75	68%	69%	1.39
Cardiff +0.5	64%	65%	1.45
Wrexham +0.5	62%	61%	1.52
Cardiff +0.25	58%	59%	1.61
Wrexham +0.25	56%	56%	1.70
Cardiff 0	51%	52%	1.84
Wrexham 0	49%	48%	1.98
Cardiff -0.25	44%	44%	2.18
Wrexham -0.25	42%	41%	2.35
Cardiff -0.5	38%	39%	2.43
Wrexham -0.5	36%	35%	2.68
Cardiff -0.75	32%	31%	3.04
Wrexham -0.75	31%	28%	@ 3.34
Cardiff -1	27%	23%	@ 4.08
Wrexham -1	26%	21%	@ 4.56
Cardiff -1.25	22%	21%	4.40
Wrexham -1.25	21%	19%	@ 5.00
Cardiff -1.75	14%	14%	6.60

📈 How the market moved

Cardiff 38%Draw 28%Wrexham 35%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cardiff vs Wrexham?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 67%.

Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Wrexham?

Our model makes a Cardiff win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Cardiff vs Wrexham.

What is the predicted score for Cardiff vs Wrexham?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.38 for Cardiff and 1.15 for Wrexham. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Cardiff and Wrexham play?

Kick-off is Monday 17 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.