Fri 30 Oct20:15Upcoming

⚽ Primeira Liga

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Friday 30 October 2026, 20:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Casa Pia face Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Friday 30 October 2026, 20:15 UTC. Recent form: Casa Pia have 2 wins from their last 5, while Sporting CP have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Sporting CP won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Sporting CP win the most likely result at 73%, projecting a 0.7-2.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Sporting CP Win @ 1.27

73%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.72 – 2.67 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	9.0%	12.0%	10.7%	7.1%
1	2.4%	6.5%	8.7%	7.7%	5.1%
2	0.9%	2.3%	3.1%	2.8%	1.9%
3	0.2%	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	0.4%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-2

Casa Pia winDrawSporting CP win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is a Sporting CP win at odds 1.27, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Sporting CP win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 73%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points no (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Casa Pia 9%Draw 18%Sporting CP 73%

9%18%73%

73%

Sporting CP Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Casa Pia and Sporting CP. Wins shown from Casa Pia’s perspective: Sporting CP 5.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-16	Sporting CP	3 – 0	Casa Pia	L
2025-08-08	Casa Pia	0 – 2	Sporting CP	L
2025-03-09	Casa Pia	1 – 3	Sporting CP	L
2024-10-05	Sporting CP	2 – 0	Casa Pia	L
2024-01-29	Sporting CP	8 – 0	Casa Pia	L

📈 Recent form

Casa Pia

Casa Pia come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Estrela da Amadora. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Santa Clara.

WEstrela da Amadora 0-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
WAlpendorada 0-1 Casa PiaTaça de Portugal
LCasa Pia 0-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
WEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga

Sporting CP

Sporting CP come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Lens. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Académico de Viseu.

LSporting CP 1-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
LSporting CP 2-3 Lask LinzUEFA Champions League
WLens 0-2 Sporting CPUEFA Champions League
WSC Braga 1-3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
DSporting CP 2-2 AroucaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Casa Pia at 9% to win and Sporting CP at 73%, with the draw at 18%. Our model makes a Sporting CP win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sporting CP Win	73%	74%	@ 1.27
Draw	18%	17%	@ 5.50
Casa Pia Win	9%	9%	@ 10.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sporting CP or Draw at 1.06 (90% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sporting CP or Draw	90%	91%	@ 1.06
Casa Pia or Draw	26%	26%	@ 3.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.7-2.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	81%	@ 1.17
Over 2.5	66%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 3.5	56%	61%	@ 1.53
Over 3.5	44%	39%	@ 2.38
Under 2.5	34%	40%	@ 2.35
Under 1.5	15%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	53%	53%	@ 1.75
BTTS Yes	47%	47%	@ 2.00

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

Our model's pick is a Sporting CP win at odds 1.27, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

Our model makes a Sporting CP win the most likely result at 73%. It projects an expected 0.7-2.7 scoreline for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP.

What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-2, based on expected goals of 0.72 for Casa Pia and 2.67 for Sporting CP. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Casa Pia and Sporting CP play?

Kick-off is Friday 30 October 2026, 20:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.