Sun 13 Sep1-1Finished

⚽ La Liga

Celta Vigo vs Málaga Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Celta Vigo vs Málaga in the La Liga. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Celta Vigo 1-1 Málaga

Celta Vigo vs Málaga finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.32, landed.

Celta Vigo face Málaga in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 12:00 UTC. Recent form: Celta Vigo have no wins from their last 5, while Málaga have no wins from their last 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.5-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Celta Vigo vs Málaga with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.32

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.50 – 1.29 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	7.9%	5.1%	2.2%	0.7%
1	9.2%	11.9%	7.7%	3.3%	1.1%
2	6.9%	8.9%	5.7%	2.5%	0.8%
3	3.5%	4.5%	2.9%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Celta Vigo winDrawMálaga win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Celta Vigo vs Málaga comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Celta Vigo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Celta Vigo 52%Draw 23%Málaga 24%

52%23%24%

52%

Celta Vigo Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Racing Santander. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Omonia Nicosia.

WCelta Vigo 5-0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
LOmonia Nicosia 1-0 Celta VigoUEFA Europa League
DCelta Vigo 1-1 MálagaLa Liga
DGetafe 1-1 Celta VigoLa Liga
DReal Sociedad 0-0 Celta VigoLa Liga

Málaga

Málaga come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Getafe.

LGetafe 1-0 MálagaLa Liga
LMálaga 1-3 VillarrealLa Liga
DCelta Vigo 1-1 MálagaLa Liga
DMálaga 0-0 LevanteLa Liga
LReal Madrid 4-0 MálagaLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Celta Vigo

A. AntanonAnkle Injury
J. El AbdellaouiKnee Injury
A. FebasRibs Injury
B. IglesiasInjury

Málaga

A. AznouMuscle Injury
F. CaleroRibs Injury
M. DiarraCalf Injury
C. DotorIllness
J. LobeteKnee Injury
D. MurilloInjury
A. OchoaKnee Injury
A. PastorIllness

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Celta Vigo at 52% to win and Málaga at 24%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Celta Vigo Win	52%	53%	@ 1.76
Málaga Win	24%	20%	@ 4.60
Draw	23%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Celta Vigo or Draw at 1.16 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Celta Vigo or Draw	76%	80%	@ 1.16
Málaga or Draw	49%	47%	@ 1.95

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	71%	@ 1.32
Under 3.5	69%	74%	@ 1.26
Over 2.5	53%	47%	@ 1.97
Under 2.5	47%	53%	@ 1.72
Over 3.5	31%	26%	@ 3.65
Under 1.5	23%	29%	@ 3.25

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	49%	@ 1.87
BTTS No	44%	51%	@ 1.80

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Celta Vigo or Málaga is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Málaga +2	80%	83%	1.15
Celta Vigo +0.75	80%	86%	1.10
Málaga +1.75	77%	75%	1.26
Celta Vigo +0.5	76%	81%	1.17
Málaga +1.5	73%	69%	@ 1.39
Celta Vigo +0.25	70%	79%	1.22
Málaga +1.25	67%	64%	1.49
Celta Vigo 0	64%	75%	1.26
Málaga +1	61%	59%	1.63
Celta Vigo -0.25	58%	64%	1.50
Málaga +0.75	55%	50%	@ 1.93
Celta Vigo -0.5	51%	56%	1.70
Málaga +0.5	49%	44%	@ 2.18
Celta Vigo -0.75	45%	50%	1.95
Málaga +0.25	42%	36%	@ 2.66
Celta Vigo -1	39%	41%	2.31
Málaga 0	36%	25%	@ 3.86
Celta Vigo -1.25	33%	36%	2.69
Málaga -0.25	30%	21%	@ 4.49
Celta Vigo -1.5	27%	31%	3.08
Málaga -0.5	24%	19%	@ 5.00
Celta Vigo -1.75	23%	25%	3.85
Málaga -0.75	20%	14%	@ 6.80
Celta Vigo -2	20%	17%	@ 5.50

📈 How the market moved

Celta Vigo 56%Draw 26%Málaga 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Celta Vigo vs Málaga?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Málaga?

Our model makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Málaga.

What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Málaga?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.50 for Celta Vigo and 1.29 for Málaga. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Celta Vigo and Málaga play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.