⚽ Brazilian Série A
Chapecoense vs Bahia Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Chapecoense vs Bahia in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: Chapecoense 3-3 Bahia
Chapecoense vs Bahia finished 3-3. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Chapecoense face Bahia in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Bahia won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.2-2.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Chapecoense vs Bahia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% |
| 2 | 2.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Bahia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Chapecoense with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bahia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (63%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Chapecoense and Bahia. Wins shown from Chapecoense’s perspective: 1 drawn · Bahia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Chapecoense | 3 – 3 | Bahia | D |
| 2026-07-17 | Bahia | 2 – 0 | Chapecoense | L |
📈 Recent form
Chapecoense come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Internacional.
- DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- LChapecoense 1-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
- WCorinthians 1-2 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- LGrêmio 3-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- WChapecoense 1-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
Bahia come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Athletico Paranaense.
- LAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- WBahia 2-1 RemoBrazilian Série A
- WRB Bragantino 2-3 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- WBahia 3-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
- WVitória 0-2 BahiaBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Y. BolasieInjury
- Bruno TubaraoNot in squad
- Joao PauloHealth problems
- Mauricio GarcezThigh Injury
- Max AlvesInjury
- Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
- Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury
- AdemirInjury
- AdemirSuspended (cards)
- Everton RibeiroNot in squad
- Leo VieiraKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Chapecoense at 25% to win and Bahia at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia Win | 48% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | @ 3.45 |
| Chapecoense Win | 25% | 27% | @ 3.40 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bahia or Draw at 1.30 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia or Draw | 74% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Chapecoense or Draw | 51% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-2.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 76% | @ 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 52% | @ 1.83 |
| Under 3.5 | 53% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 48% | @ 1.96 |
| Under 1.5 | 13% | 24% | @ 3.85 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 56% | @ 1.64 |
| BTTS No | 37% | 44% | @ 2.12 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Chapecoense or Bahia is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia +1.25 | 86% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Chapecoense +2 | 82% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Bahia +1 | 82% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Chapecoense +1.75 | 79% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Bahia +0.75 | 78% | 80% | 1.19 |
| Chapecoense +1.5 | 75% | – | 1.26 |
| Bahia +0.5 | 74% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Chapecoense +1.25 | 69% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Bahia +0.25 | 68% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Chapecoense +1 | 63% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Bahia 0 | 61% | 64% | 1.48 |
| Chapecoense +0.75 | 57% | 60% | 1.60 |
| Bahia -0.25 | 55% | 54% | 1.75 |
| Chapecoense +0.5 | 51% | 53% | 1.77 |
| Bahia -0.5 | 49% | 47% | 2.03 |
| Chapecoense +0.25 | 45% | 46% | 2.09 |
| Bahia -0.75 | 43% | 40% | @ 2.36 |
| Chapecoense 0 | 39% | 36% | @ 2.62 |
| Bahia -1 | 37% | 32% | @ 2.99 |
| Chapecoense -0.25 | 32% | 30% | @ 3.16 |
| Bahia -1.25 | 31% | 28% | @ 3.43 |
| Chapecoense -0.5 | 26% | 26% | 3.64 |
| Chapecoense -0.75 | 22% | 20% | @ 4.66 |
| Bahia -1.75 | 21% | 20% | 4.65 |
| Chapecoense -1 | 18% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Bahia -2 | 18% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Chapecoense -1.25 | 14% | 14% | 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chapecoense vs Bahia?
Our model's main pick is Chapecoense with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 79%.
Who is the favourite for Chapecoense vs Bahia?
Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.2-2.3 scoreline for Chapecoense vs Bahia.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense vs Bahia?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.19 for Chapecoense and 2.33 for Bahia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Chapecoense and Bahia play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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