⚽ Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise in the Jupiler Pro League. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise finished 2-3. Union St. Gilloise won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Charleroi face Union St. Gilloise in the upcoming Jupiler Pro League tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Charleroi have 4 wins from their last 4, while Union St. Gilloise have 2 wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Union St. Gilloise won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 0.9-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise. Wins shown from Charleroi’s perspective: Union St. Gilloise 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Charleroi | 2 – 3 | Union St. Gilloise | L |
| 2025-01-11 | Charleroi | 1 – 2 | Union St. Gilloise | L |
| 2024-08-16 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 – 0 | Charleroi | L |
| 2023-12-10 | Charleroi | 1 – 3 | Union St. Gilloise | L |
| 2023-10-01 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 – 1 | Charleroi | L |
📈 Recent form
Charleroi come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Kortrijk. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Union St. Gilloise.
- WCharleroi 3-2 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- WZulte Waregem 0-1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- LCharleroi 2-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- WKortrijk 1-3 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- WCharleroi 2-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
Union St. Gilloise come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Lommel United. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WAntwerp 0-2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- WPlzen 0-3 Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League
- WUnion St. Gilloise 5-0 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
- WCharleroi 2-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- WSt. Truiden 0-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Charleroi at 25% to win and Union St. Gilloise at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise Win | 45% | 44% | @ 2.14 |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
| Charleroi Win | 25% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Union St. Gilloise or Draw at 1.32 (73% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise or Draw | 73% | 71% | @ 1.32 |
| Charleroi or Draw | 53% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 80% | 70% | @ 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 75% | @ 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 49% | @ 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 51% | @ 1.85 |
| Under 1.5 | 34% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 55% | 44% | @ 2.08 |
| BTTS Yes | 45% | 56% | @ 1.65 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Charleroi or Union St. Gilloise is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise +1.5 | 89% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Union St. Gilloise +1.25 | 85% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Union St. Gilloise +1 | 81% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Charleroi +1.75 | 80% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Union St. Gilloise +0.75 | 77% | 77% | 1.24 |
| Charleroi +1.5 | 76% | 76% | 1.23 |
| Union St. Gilloise +0.5 | 73% | 71% | 1.34 |
| Charleroi +1.25 | 70% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Union St. Gilloise +0.25 | 66% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Charleroi +1 | 64% | 71% | 1.33 |
| Union St. Gilloise 0 | 60% | 60% | 1.59 |
| Charleroi +0.75 | 59% | 63% | 1.54 |
| Union St. Gilloise -0.25 | 54% | 51% | @ 1.88 |
| Charleroi +0.5 | 53% | 56% | 1.73 |
| Union St. Gilloise -0.5 | 47% | 44% | @ 2.20 |
| Charleroi +0.25 | 46% | 49% | 1.97 |
| Union St. Gilloise -0.75 | 41% | 37% | @ 2.59 |
| Charleroi 0 | 40% | 40% | 2.38 |
| Union St. Gilloise -1 | 36% | 29% | @ 3.32 |
| Charleroi -0.25 | 34% | 34% | 2.80 |
| Union St. Gilloise -1.25 | 30% | 26% | @ 3.67 |
| Charleroi -0.5 | 27% | 29% | 3.28 |
| Union St. Gilloise -1.5 | 24% | 24% | 4.00 |
| Charleroi -0.75 | 23% | 23% | 4.09 |
| Union St. Gilloise -1.75 | 20% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Charleroi -1 | 19% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Charleroi -1.25 | 15% | 14% | 6.60 |
| Charleroi -1.5 | 11% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.
Who is the favourite for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.3 scoreline for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise.
What is the predicted score for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.94 for Charleroi and 1.33 for Union St. Gilloise. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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