⚽ Jupiler Pro League

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise in the Jupiler Pro League. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Charleroi face Union St. Gilloise in the Jupiler Pro League, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Charleroi have 4 wins from their last 4, while Union St. Gilloise have 2 wins from their last 3. In their last 4 meetings, Union St. Gilloise won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 0.9-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.34

80%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.94 – 1.33 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.3%	13.7%	9.1%	4.1%	1.3%
1	9.7%	12.9%	8.6%	3.8%	1.3%
2	4.6%	6.1%	4.0%	1.8%	0.6%
3	1.4%	1.9%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Charleroi winDrawUnion St. Gilloise win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.90 (+14.8% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.90, 60% model probability, +14.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Charleroi 25%Draw 30%Union St. Gilloise 45%

25%30%45%

45%

Union St. Gilloise Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

+14.8%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise. Wins shown from Charleroi’s perspective: Union St. Gilloise 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-01-11	Charleroi	1 – 2	Union St. Gilloise	L
2024-08-16	Union St. Gilloise	1 – 0	Charleroi	L
2023-12-10	Charleroi	1 – 3	Union St. Gilloise	L
2023-10-01	Union St. Gilloise	3 – 1	Charleroi	L

📈 Recent form

Charleroi

Charleroi come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Kortrijk. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Rayo Vallecano.

WKortrijk 1-3 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
WCharleroi 2-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
WLommel United 0-1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
WCharleroi 3-1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
LCharleroi 2-3 Rayo VallecanoFriendlies Clubs

Union St. Gilloise

Union St. Gilloise come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at KVC Westerlo.

WSt. Truiden 0-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
WUnion St. Gilloise 3-0 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
DUnion St. Gilloise 0-0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
DBodo/Glimt 2-2 Union St. GilloiseUEFA Champions League
WKVC Westerlo 1-5 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Charleroi at 25% to win and Union St. Gilloise at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	30%	@ 3.35	+0.6%
Union St. Gilloise Win	45%	@ 2.14	-4.0%
Charleroi Win	25%	@ 3.25	-18.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Union St. Gilloise or Draw at 1.32 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Union St. Gilloise or Draw	73%	@ 1.32	-4.1%
Charleroi or Draw	53%	@ 1.67	-11.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	34%	@ 3.75	+26.7%
Under 2.5	60%	@ 1.90	+14.8%
Under 3.5	80%	@ 1.34	+7.9%
Over 1.5	66%	@ 1.25	-17.2%
Over 2.5	40%	@ 1.85	-26.7%
Over 3.5	20%	@ 3.20	-37.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	55%	@ 2.08	+13.5%
BTTS Yes	45%	@ 1.65	-25.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	45%
Dixon-Coles	Away	45%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.10 for the home side, 1.53 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-0 (16%), 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (15%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, with 80% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 1.90 (+14.8% value).

Who is the favourite for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?

Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.3 scoreline for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise.

What is the predicted score for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.94 for Charleroi and 1.33 for Union St. Gilloise. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.