⚽ Serie A

Como vs Parma Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Como vs Parma in the Serie A. Kick-off Monday 14 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Como face Parma in the Serie A, kicking off Monday 14 September 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Como have 2 wins from their last 3, while Parma have 0 wins from their last 3. In their last 4 meetings, Como won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Como win the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 1.7-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Como vs Parma with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.43

77%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.71 – 0.74 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.6%	6.4%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%
1	14.8%	10.9%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%
2	12.6%	9.3%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%
3	7.2%	5.3%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%
4	3.1%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Como winDrawParma win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Como vs Parma is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.43, the selection our model is most confident in at 77%. On the match result, the model rates a Como win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (58%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.10 (+16.9% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 2.10, 56% model probability, +16.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Como 61%Draw 27%Parma 12%

61%27%12%

61%

Como Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS no

+16.9%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Como and Parma. Wins shown from Como’s perspective: Como 2 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-17	Como	1 – 0	Parma	W
2025-10-25	Parma	0 – 0	Como	D
2025-05-03	Parma	0 – 1	Como	W
2024-10-19	Como	1 – 1	Parma	D

📈 Recent form

Como

Como come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Genoa. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Liverpool.

WGenoa 1-4 ComoSerie A
WNapoli 1-2 ComoSerie A
DUdinese 1-1 ComoSerie A
LLiverpool 2-0 ComoFriendlies Clubs
DArsenal 1-1 ComoFriendlies Clubs

Parma

Parma come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Catania. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Cremonese.

DParma 1-1 MonzaSerie A
LParma 0-2 CremoneseCoppa Italia
LJuventus 2-0 ParmaSerie A
LParma 0-1 CagliariSerie A
WParma 2-0 CataniaCoppa Italia

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Como at 61% to win and Parma at 12%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Como win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	27%	@ 5.40	+44.2%
Parma Win	12%	@ 11.50	+38.6%
Como Win	61%	@ 1.25	-23.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Parma or Draw at 3.70 (36% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Parma or Draw	36%	@ 3.70	+32.7%
Como or Draw	85%	@ 1.03	-12.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	30%	@ 4.25	+26.5%
Under 2.5	56%	@ 2.10	+16.9%
Under 3.5	77%	@ 1.43	+9.9%
Over 1.5	70%	@ 1.21	-15.0%
Over 2.5	44%	@ 1.70	-24.6%
Over 3.5	23%	@ 2.80	-35.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	42%	@ 2.30	-3.1%
BTTS No	58%	@ 1.57	-9.2%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Como vs Parma?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.43, with 77% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.10 (+16.9% value).

Who is the favourite for Como vs Parma?

Our model makes a Como win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.7 scoreline for Como vs Parma.

What is the predicted score for Como vs Parma?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.71 for Como and 0.74 for Parma. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Como and Parma play?

Kick-off is Monday 14 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.