⚽ Brazilian Série A

Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 22:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Corinthians face Chapecoense-sc in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Corinthians have 1 win from their last 5, while Chapecoense-sc have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Corinthians win the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 2.0-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.30

78%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.98 – 0.88 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	5.0%	2.2%	0.7%	0.1%
1	11.3%	10.0%	4.4%	1.3%	0.3%
2	11.2%	9.9%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	7.4%	6.5%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
4	3.7%	3.2%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Corinthians winDrawChapecoense-sc win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Corinthians win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (51%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams to score at odds 2.20 (+11.9% model value).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 2.20, 51% model probability, +11.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Corinthians 61%Draw 25%Chapecoense-sc 14%

61%25%14%

61%

Corinthians Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

+11.9%

Best value: BTTS Yes

📈 Recent form

Corinthians

Corinthians come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Rosario Central. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Santos.

LCorinthians 0-1 SantosBrazilian Série A
LCoritiba 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
WCorinthians 1-0 Rosario CentralCONMEBOL Libertadores
LCorinthians 1-2 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
DRosario Central 0-0 CorinthiansCONMEBOL Libertadores

Chapecoense-sc

Chapecoense-sc come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Sao Paulo. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Gremio.

LGremio 3-1 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A
WChapecoense-sc 1-0 Sao PauloBrazilian Série A
DChapecoense-sc 3-3 BahiaBrazilian Série A
LCoritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A
LCruzeiro 2-0 Chapecoense-scCopa Do Brasil

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 17 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Corinthians

AndreMuscle Injury
Andre RamalhoNot in squad
Gabriel PaulistaSuspended (cards)
Hugo SouzaSuspended (cards)
KaykeKnee Injury
Z. LabyadKnee Injury
RanieleSuspended (cards)
RanieleSuspended (red card)

Chapecoense-sc

Y. BolasieInjury
Bruno PachecoSuspended (cards)
Joao PauloHealth problems
Max AlvesInjury
Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury
Bruno TubaraoNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Corinthians at 61% to win and Chapecoense-sc at 14%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Corinthians win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Chapecoense-sc Win	14%	@ 8.00	+13.2%
Draw	25%	@ 4.50	+12.1%
Corinthians Win	61%	@ 1.40	-14.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Chapecoense-sc or Draw at 2.75 (37% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Chapecoense-sc or Draw	37%	@ 2.75	+2.7%
Corinthians or Draw	84%	@ 1.08	-9.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	32%	@ 3.40	+9.3%
Over 2.5	54%	@ 1.95	+6.2%
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.30	+1.3%
Under 3.5	68%	@ 1.33	-9.7%
Under 2.5	46%	@ 1.85	-15.8%
Under 1.5	22%	@ 3.50	-22.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	51%	@ 2.20	+11.9%
BTTS No	49%	@ 1.62	-20.4%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	61%
Dixon-Coles	Home	64%
GradientBoosting	Home	60%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.95 for the home side, 0.86 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams to score at 2.20 (+11.9% value).

Who is the favourite for Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc?

Our model makes a Corinthians win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 2.0-0.9 scoreline for Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc.

What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.98 for Corinthians and 0.88 for Chapecoense-sc. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Corinthians and Chapecoense-sc play?

Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.