⚽ Brazilian Série A
Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Result: Coritiba 3-3 Athletico Paranaense
Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense finished 3-3. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.44, landed.
Coritiba face Athletico Paranaense in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 00:00 UTC. Recent form: Coritiba have 3 wins from their last 5, while Athletico Paranaense have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Coritiba won 1, Athletico Paranaense won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.3-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Coritiba and Athletico Paranaense. Wins shown from Coritiba’s perspective: Coritiba 1 · 1 drawn · Athletico Paranaense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Coritiba | 3 – 3 | Athletico Paranaense | D |
| 2023-10-01 | Coritiba | 2 – 0 | Athletico Paranaense | W |
| 2023-05-14 | Athletico Paranaense | 3 – 2 | Coritiba | L |
📈 Recent form
Coritiba come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Remo. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Vasco da Gama.
- LVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
- DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- LCoritiba 1-2 MirassolBrazilian Série A
- WRemo 2-3 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
- WCoritiba 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
Athletico Paranaense come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Bahia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Cruzeiro.
- WAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- LCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- DAthletico Paranaense 3-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
- WBotafogo 2-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Lucas RonierKnee Injury
- B. OcampoInjury
- TingaMuscle Injury
- ClaudinhoMuscle Injury
- Leo DerikThigh Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Coritiba at 34% to win and Athletico Paranaense at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico Paranaense Win | 36% | 41% | @ 2.35 |
| Coritiba Win | 34% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Athletico Paranaense or Draw at 1.33 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico Paranaense or Draw | 64% | 70% | @ 1.33 |
| Coritiba or Draw | 62% | 59% | @ 1.57 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 | 71% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 44% | @ 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| Under 1.5 | 25% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| BTTS No | 45% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Coritiba or Athletico Paranaense is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba +1.75 | 86% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1.5 | 84% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Coritiba +1.5 | 83% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1.25 | 79% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Coritiba +1.25 | 78% | 78% | 1.23 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1 | 74% | 84% | 1.14 |
| Coritiba +1 | 72% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.75 | 69% | 77% | 1.25 |
| Coritiba +0.75 | 67% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.5 | 64% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Coritiba +0.5 | 62% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.25 | 58% | 65% | 1.48 |
| Coritiba +0.25 | 56% | 53% | @ 1.83 |
| Athletico Paranaense 0 | 51% | 58% | 1.66 |
| Coritiba 0 | 49% | 42% | @ 2.26 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.25 | 44% | 47% | 2.04 |
| Coritiba -0.25 | 42% | 35% | @ 2.71 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.5 | 38% | 41% | 2.36 |
| Coritiba -0.5 | 36% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.75 | 33% | 34% | 2.84 |
| Coritiba -0.75 | 31% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1 | 28% | 25% | @ 3.83 |
| Coritiba -1 | 26% | 16% | @ 5.99 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1.25 | 22% | 22% | 4.31 |
| Coritiba -1.25 | 21% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1.5 | 17% | 20% | 4.65 |
| Coritiba -1.5 | 16% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1.75 | 14% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.
Who is the favourite for Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense?
Our model makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline for Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense.
What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Athletico Paranaense?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.27 for Coritiba and 1.43 for Athletico Paranaense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Coritiba and Athletico Paranaense play?
Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 00:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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