⚽ Brazilian Série A
Coritiba vs Corinthians Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Coritiba vs Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 22:30 UTC.
Result: Coritiba 2-1 Corinthians
Coritiba vs Corinthians finished 2-1. Coritiba won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Coritiba face Corinthians in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 22:30 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Coritiba won 1, Corinthians won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Corinthians win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.2-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Coritiba vs Corinthians with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Coritiba vs Corinthians comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.46, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Corinthians win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Coritiba and Corinthians. Wins shown from Coritiba’s perspective: Coritiba 1 · Corinthians 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Coritiba | 2 – 1 | Corinthians | W |
| 2023-12-07 | Coritiba | 0 – 2 | Corinthians | L |
| 2023-08-13 | Corinthians | 3 – 1 | Coritiba | L |
📈 Recent form
Coritiba come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Remo. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Vasco da Gama.
- LVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
- DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- LCoritiba 1-2 MirassolBrazilian Série A
- WRemo 2-3 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
- WCoritiba 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
Corinthians come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Fluminense.
- LCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
- LCorinthians 0-1 Estudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores
- LFlamengo 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
- DEstudiantes L.P. 1-1 CorinthiansCONMEBOL Libertadores
- LCorinthians 1-2 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Lucas RonierKnee Injury
- B. OcampoInjury
- Pedro RangelLacking Match Fitness
- TingaMuscle Injury
- AndreMuscle Injury
- Andre RamalhoNot in squad
- R. GarroSuspended (cards)
- Hugo SouzaNot in squad
- KaykeKnee Injury
- Z. LabyadKnee Injury
- Matheus BiduNot in squad
- MatheuzinhoNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Coritiba at 26% to win and Corinthians at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Corinthians win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians Win | 48% | 38% | @ 2.45 |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
| Coritiba Win | 26% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Corinthians or Draw at 1.37 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians or Draw | 74% | 69% | @ 1.37 |
| Coritiba or Draw | 52% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 64% | @ 1.46 |
| Under 3.5 | 72% | 81% | @ 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Under 1.5 | 25% | 36% | @ 2.65 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 46% | @ 2.02 |
| BTTS No | 45% | 54% | @ 1.71 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Coritiba or Corinthians is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians +1.25 | 86% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Corinthians +1 | 82% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Corinthians +0.75 | 78% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Coritiba +1.5 | 75% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Corinthians +0.5 | 74% | 69% | @ 1.37 |
| Coritiba +1.25 | 69% | 81% | 1.18 |
| Corinthians +0.25 | 67% | 64% | @ 1.49 |
| Coritiba +1 | 63% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Corinthians 0 | 61% | 56% | @ 1.71 |
| Coritiba +0.75 | 58% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Corinthians -0.25 | 55% | 46% | @ 2.12 |
| Coritiba +0.5 | 52% | 61% | 1.53 |
| Corinthians -0.5 | 48% | 39% | @ 2.42 |
| Coritiba +0.25 | 45% | 54% | 1.77 |
| Corinthians -0.75 | 42% | 31% | @ 3.08 |
| Coritiba 0 | 39% | 44% | 2.15 |
| Corinthians -1 | 37% | 22% | @ 4.43 |
| Coritiba -0.25 | 33% | 36% | 2.65 |
| Corinthians -1.25 | 31% | 19% | @ 5.11 |
| Coritiba -0.5 | 26% | 31% | 3.00 |
| Corinthians -1.5 | 25% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Coritiba -0.75 | 22% | 24% | 4.03 |
| Coritiba -1 | 18% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Coritiba -1.25 | 14% | 14% | 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.46, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 64%.
Who is the favourite for Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Our model makes a Corinthians win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.5 scoreline for Coritiba vs Corinthians.
What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Corinthians?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Coritiba and 1.47 for Corinthians. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Coritiba and Corinthians play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 22:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Lask Linzvs
LiverpoolUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct16:45
Feyenoordvs
ComoUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct16:45
Slovan Bratislavavs
VfB StuttgartUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct19:00
Shakhtar Donetskvs
AEK Athens FCUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct19:00
Manchester Cityvs
Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct19:00
Bodo/Glimtvs
Borussia DortmundUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct19:00Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.