⚽ Brazilian Série A

Coritiba vs Corinthians Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Coritiba vs Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 22:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Coritiba face Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 22:30 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Corinthians won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Corinthians win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.2-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Coritiba vs Corinthians with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.50

76%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.19 – 1.55 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	10.0%	7.8%	4.0%	1.6%
1	7.7%	11.9%	9.2%	4.8%	1.8%
2	4.6%	7.1%	5.5%	2.8%	1.1%
3	1.8%	2.8%	2.2%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.5%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Coritiba winDrawCorinthians win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Corinthians is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.50, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a Corinthians win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.45 (+26.4% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 2.45, 52% model probability, +26.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Coritiba 25%Draw 26%Corinthians 49%

25%26%49%

49%

Corinthians Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

+26.4%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Coritiba and Corinthians. Wins shown from Coritiba’s perspective: Corinthians 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2023-12-07	Coritiba	0 – 2	Corinthians	L
2023-08-13	Corinthians	3 – 1	Coritiba	L

📈 Recent form

Coritiba

Coritiba come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Chapecoense-sc. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Palmeiras.

DSao Paulo 1-1 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WCoritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A
DRB Bragantino 0-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
LCoritiba 1-3 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 3-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A

Corinthians

Corinthians come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at RB Bragantino. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Cruzeiro.

WCorinthians 1-0 Rosario CentralCONMEBOL Libertadores
LCorinthians 1-2 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
DRosario Central 0-0 CorinthiansCONMEBOL Libertadores
WRB Bragantino 0-2 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
WCorinthians 2-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Coritiba

Lucas RonierKnee Injury
Pedro RangelNot in squad
Fernando SobralInjury
B. OcampoInjury
TingaInjury

Corinthians

AndreMuscle Injury
R. GarroSuspended (cards)
KaykeKnee Injury
Z. LabyadKnee Injury
VitinhoKnee Injury
Yuri AlbertoMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Coritiba at 25% to win and Corinthians at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Corinthians win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Corinthians Win	49%	@ 2.40	+17.3%
Coritiba Win	25%	@ 3.15	-20.7%
Draw	26%	@ 2.98	-22.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Corinthians or Draw at 1.33 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Corinthians or Draw	74%	@ 1.33	-1.0%
Coritiba or Draw	51%	@ 1.53	-22.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	30%	@ 4.75	+40.0%
Over 2.5	52%	@ 2.45	+26.4%
Over 1.5	76%	@ 1.50	+13.8%
Under 3.5	70%	@ 1.18	-16.8%
Under 2.5	48%	@ 1.53	-26.0%
Under 1.5	24%	@ 2.55	-38.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	55%	@ 2.00	+10.5%
BTTS No	45%	@ 1.73	-22.5%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	40%
Dixon-Coles	Away	50%
GradientBoosting	Away	52%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.06 for the home side, 1.58 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Corinthians?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.50, with 76% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.45 (+26.4% value).

Who is the favourite for Coritiba vs Corinthians?

Our model makes a Corinthians win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.6 scoreline for Coritiba vs Corinthians.

What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Corinthians?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.19 for Coritiba and 1.55 for Corinthians. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Coritiba and Corinthians play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.