Wed 22 Jul1-3Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Coritiba vs Palmeiras Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Coritiba vs Palmeiras in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Wednesday 22 July 2026, 22:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Coritiba 1-3 Palmeiras

Coritiba vs Palmeiras finished 1-3. Palmeiras won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Coritiba Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at 1.32, did not land.

Coritiba face Palmeiras in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Wednesday 22 July 2026, 22:30 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Palmeiras won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 0.9-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Coritiba vs Palmeiras with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Coritiba Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.32

84%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.89 – 1.67 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	12.9%	10.8%	6.0%	2.5%
1	6.9%	11.5%	9.6%	5.3%	2.2%
2	3.1%	5.1%	4.3%	2.4%	1.0%
3	0.9%	1.5%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-1

Coritiba winDrawPalmeiras win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Palmeiras comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Coritiba Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Palmeiras win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Coritiba 19%Draw 31%Palmeiras 50%

19%31%50%

50%

Palmeiras Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Coritiba and Palmeiras. Wins shown from Coritiba’s perspective: Palmeiras 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-22	Coritiba	1 – 3	Palmeiras	L
2023-10-22	Coritiba	0 – 2	Palmeiras	L
2023-06-04	Palmeiras	3 – 1	Coritiba	L

📈 Recent form

Coritiba

Coritiba come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Remo. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Vasco da Gama.

LVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LCoritiba 1-2 MirassolBrazilian Série A
WRemo 2-3 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WCoritiba 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A

Palmeiras

Palmeiras come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to São Paulo. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at LDU de Quito.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LLDU de Quito 3-2 PalmeirasCONMEBOL Libertadores
WPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 1-0 LDU de QuitoCONMEBOL Libertadores
DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 3 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Coritiba

FabinhoNot in squad
Rodrigo RodriguesAnkle Injury

Palmeiras

Vitor RoqueAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Coritiba at 19% to win and Palmeiras at 50%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras Win	50%	52%	@ 1.82
Draw	31%	28%	@ 3.40
Coritiba Win	19%	20%	@ 4.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Coritiba or Draw at 1.92 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Coritiba or Draw	64%	48%	@ 1.92
Palmeiras or Draw	62%	80%	@ 1.19

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	75%	@ 1.25
Over 1.5	72%	70%	@ 1.34
Under 2.5	53%	55%	@ 1.72
Over 2.5	47%	45%	@ 2.12
Under 1.5	28%	30%	@ 3.15
Over 3.5	26%	25%	@ 3.80

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	51%	@ 1.82
BTTS Yes	48%	49%	@ 1.89

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Coritiba or Palmeiras is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Coritiba +2	89%	84%	1.12
Coritiba +1.75	87%	77%	@ 1.24
Coritiba +1.5	84%	72%	@ 1.32
Coritiba +1.25	79%	68%	@ 1.40
Coritiba +1	74%	63%	@ 1.51
Palmeiras +1	72%	86%	1.10
Coritiba +0.75	69%	54%	@ 1.76
Palmeiras +0.75	67%	–	1.15
Coritiba +0.5	64%	49%	@ 1.93
Palmeiras +0.5	62%	79%	1.21
Coritiba +0.25	58%	40%	@ 2.40
Palmeiras +0.25	55%	76%	1.25
Palmeiras 0	49%	–	1.34
Coritiba -0.25	45%	24%	@ 3.95
Palmeiras -0.25	42%	60%	1.58
Coritiba -0.5	38%	21%	@ 4.56
Palmeiras -0.5	36%	51%	1.86
Palmeiras -0.75	31%	46%	2.09
Coritiba -1	28%	14%	@ 6.80
Palmeiras -1	26%	37%	2.56
Palmeiras -1.25	21%	32%	2.99
Palmeiras -1.5	16%	28%	3.43
Palmeiras -1.75	13%	23%	4.22
Palmeiras -2	11%	16%	6.00

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Palmeiras?

Our model's main pick is Coritiba Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Coritiba vs Palmeiras?

Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.7 scoreline for Coritiba vs Palmeiras.

What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Palmeiras?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.89 for Coritiba and 1.67 for Palmeiras. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Coritiba and Palmeiras play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 22 July 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.