⚽ Brazilian Série A
Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Cruzeiro 3-1 Athletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense finished 3-1. Cruzeiro won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Cruzeiro face Athletico Paranaense in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Cruzeiro have 4 wins from their last 5, while Athletico Paranaense have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Cruzeiro won 2, Athletico Paranaense won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.3-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11.9% | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Cruzeiro win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Cruzeiro and Athletico Paranaense. Wins shown from Cruzeiro’s perspective: Cruzeiro 2 · 2 drawn · Athletico Paranaense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Cruzeiro | 3 – 1 | Athletico Paranaense | W |
| 2024-10-26 | Athletico Paranaense | 3 – 0 | Cruzeiro | L |
| 2024-06-26 | Cruzeiro | 2 – 0 | Athletico Paranaense | W |
| 2023-11-30 | Cruzeiro | 1 – 1 | Athletico Paranaense | D |
| 2023-07-29 | Athletico Paranaense | 3 – 3 | Cruzeiro | D |
📈 Recent form
Cruzeiro come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Santos.
- WVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- LSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- WCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
- LVasco da Gama 3-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
Athletico Paranaense come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Bahia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Cruzeiro.
- WAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- LCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- DAthletico Paranaense 3-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
- WBotafogo 2-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Gabriel PecBroken Leg
- Jonathan JesusInjury
- L. SinisterraMuscle Injury
- G. BenavidezSuspended (cards)
- ClaudinhoMuscle Injury
- Leo DerikThigh Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Cruzeiro at 44% to win and Athletico Paranaense at 28%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro Win | 44% | 50% | @ 1.90 |
| Athletico Paranaense Win | 28% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.20 (71% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro or Draw | 71% | 78% | @ 1.20 |
| Athletico Paranaense or Draw | 55% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78% | 75% | @ 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 54% | @ 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| Under 1.5 | 32% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 52% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| BTTS Yes | 48% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Cruzeiro or Athletico Paranaense is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico Paranaense +2 | 84% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1.75 | 81% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1.5 | 78% | 73% | @ 1.31 |
| Cruzeiro +0.75 | 75% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1.25 | 72% | 69% | 1.37 |
| Cruzeiro +0.5 | 71% | 77% | 1.23 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1 | 66% | 65% | 1.48 |
| Cruzeiro +0.25 | 64% | 74% | 1.27 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.75 | 61% | 56% | @ 1.71 |
| Cruzeiro 0 | 58% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.5 | 55% | 49% | @ 1.99 |
| Cruzeiro -0.25 | 52% | 59% | 1.62 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.25 | 48% | 41% | @ 2.31 |
| Cruzeiro -0.5 | 45% | 51% | 1.89 |
| Athletico Paranaense 0 | 42% | 30% | @ 3.17 |
| Cruzeiro -0.75 | 39% | 44% | 2.15 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.25 | 36% | 26% | @ 3.68 |
| Cruzeiro -1 | 34% | 35% | 2.69 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.5 | 29% | 23% | @ 4.24 |
| Cruzeiro -1.25 | 28% | 31% | 3.10 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.75 | 25% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Cruzeiro -1.5 | 22% | 27% | 3.48 |
| Cruzeiro -1.75 | 19% | 21% | 4.40 |
| Cruzeiro -2 | 16% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense?
Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense?
Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.27 for Cruzeiro and 1.10 for Athletico Paranaense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Cruzeiro and Athletico Paranaense play?
Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Benevento
Catanzaro
Ascoli
Sampdoria
Cesena
Empoli
Virtus Entella
Avellino
Vicenza Virtus
Modena
Mantova
CremoneseAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.