vs
⚽ Brazilian Série A
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Cruzeiro face Flamengo in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Flamengo won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.2-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.29, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates a Flamengo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (53%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Cruzeiro with a +0.25 start at odds 1.91 (+1.0% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Cruzeiro and Flamengo. Wins shown from Cruzeiro’s perspective: 1 drawn · Flamengo 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Flamengo | 2 – 1 | Cruzeiro | L |
| 2026-08-13 | Cruzeiro | 1 – 1 | Flamengo | D |
| 2024-11-07 | Cruzeiro | 0 – 1 | Flamengo | L |
| 2024-06-30 | Flamengo | 2 – 1 | Cruzeiro | L |
| 2023-10-19 | Cruzeiro | 0 – 2 | Flamengo | L |
📈 Recent form
Cruzeiro come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Mirassol. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Flamengo.
- LFlamengo 2-1 CruzeiroCONMEBOL Libertadores
- WCorinthians 1-2 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- DCruzeiro 1-1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- WCruzeiro 3-1 MirassolBrazilian Série A
- WCruzeiro 2-0 Chapecoense-scCopa Do Brasil
Flamengo come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at Mirassol. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WFlamengo 2-1 CruzeiroCONMEBOL Libertadores
- WMirassol 1-5 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
- DCruzeiro 1-1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- WFlamengo 2-0 VitoriaBrazilian Série A
- DInternacional 1-1 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Gabriel PecBroken Leg
- Jonathan JesusSuspended (cards)
- L. SinisterraMuscle Injury
- N. VillarrealMuscle Injury
- Alex SandroCalf Injury
- VitaoMuscle Injury
- N. de la CruzMuscle Injury
- EvertonIllness
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Cruzeiro at 31% to win and Flamengo at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 30% | @ 3.25 | -1.4% |
| Cruzeiro Win | 31% | @ 3.11 | -3.2% |
| Flamengo Win | 38% | @ 2.29 | -11.8% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.58 (60% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro or Draw | 60% | @ 1.58 | -6.0% |
| Flamengo or Draw | 67% | @ 1.36 | -9.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 48% | @ 2.02 | -3.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | @ 1.31 | -3.9% |
| Under 3.5 | 74% | @ 1.29 | -4.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | @ 1.80 | -6.3% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | @ 3.56 | -6.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 27% | @ 3.38 | -9.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 53% | @ 1.75 | -6.4% |
| BTTS No | 47% | @ 1.98 | -8.0% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Cruzeiro or Flamengo is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro -1 | 24% | @ 5.90 | +39.1% |
| Cruzeiro -1.25 | 19% | @ 6.40 | +20.2% |
| Cruzeiro -0.75 | 28% | @ 4.03 | +14.3% |
| Cruzeiro -0.25 | 40% | @ 2.75 | +9.1% |
| Flamengo -1 | 30% | @ 3.60 | +6.8% |
| Cruzeiro 0 | 46% | @ 2.27 | +5.0% |
| Cruzeiro +0.25 | 53% | @ 1.91 | +1.0% |
| Cruzeiro +1.5 | 81% | 1.20 | -2.6% |
| Flamengo -1.25 | 24% | 4.00 | -2.7% |
| Cruzeiro +0.5 | 60% | 1.62 | -3.6% |
| Cruzeiro +0.75 | 65% | 1.47 | -4.6% |
| Cruzeiro -1.5 | 14% | 6.80 | -4.9% |
| Flamengo -0.75 | 35% | 2.71 | -4.9% |
| Cruzeiro +1.75 | 84% | 1.13 | -4.9% |
| Flamengo +1.5 | 86% | 1.10 | -5.4% |
| Cruzeiro +1.25 | 76% | 1.25 | -5.7% |
| Flamengo -1.75 | 16% | 5.90 | -6.3% |
| Flamengo -0.25 | 47% | 1.96 | -7.7% |
| Flamengo +0.5 | 67% | 1.37 | -8.2% |
| Flamengo +1.25 | 81% | 1.12 | -9.0% |
| Cruzeiro +1 | 70% | 1.29 | -9.3% |
| Flamengo -0.5 | 40% | 2.23 | -9.6% |
| Flamengo +0.75 | 72% | 1.25 | -10.8% |
| Flamengo +0.25 | 60% | 1.46 | -12.0% |
| Flamengo 0 | 54% | 1.63 | -12.7% |
| Flamengo +1 | 76% | 1.13 | -13.6% |
| Flamengo -1.5 | 19% | 4.40 | -17.0% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Away | 39% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 42% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 37% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.22 for the home side, 1.38 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-0 (9%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.29, with 74% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Cruzeiro with a +0.25 start at 1.91 (+1.0% value).
Who is the favourite for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Cruzeiro and 1.39 for Flamengo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Cruzeiro and Flamengo play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.