vs
⚽ UEFA Europa League
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 16 July 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Result: Derry City 1-2 CSKA Sofia
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia finished 1-2. CSKA Sofia won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Derry City Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at 1.35, landed.
Derry City face CSKA Sofia in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 16 July 2026, 17:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 11.7% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Derry City Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.35, the selection our model is most confident in at 88%. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (56%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is CSKA Sofia to win by 1+ goals at odds 2.87 (+101.6% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Derry City at 21% to win and CSKA Sofia at 29%, with the draw at 50%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 50% | 3.85 | +92.5% |
| Derry City Win | 21% | 3.30 | -31.3% |
| CSKA Sofia Win | 29% | 1.91 | -44.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Derry City or Draw at 1.85 (71% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City or Draw | 71% | 1.85 | +31.1% |
| CSKA Sofia or Draw | 79% | 1.28 | +1.4% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.80 | +25.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 1.25 | -3.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 3.00 | -6.6% |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | 1.35 | -7.0% |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | 3.70 | -15.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 1.95 | -40.7% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 | -7.0% |
| BTTS No | 44% | 2.00 | -11.4% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Derry City or CSKA Sofia is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia -2 | 83% | 5.75 | +377.8% |
| CSKA Sofia -1.75 | 80% | 3.90 | +210.3% |
| Derry City -1 | 35% | 6.80 | +140.0% |
| CSKA Sofia -1.5 | 76% | 3.02 | +129.6% |
| Derry City -1.25 | 30% | 7.00 | +107.4% |
| CSKA Sofia -1.25 | 70% | 2.87 | +101.6% |
| Derry City -0.25 | 53% | 3.33 | +76.2% |
| CSKA Sofia -1 | 65% | 2.48 | +60.5% |
| Derry City -1.5 | 24% | 6.60 | +58.1% |
| Derry City +0.25 | 65% | 2.28 | +48.7% |
| Derry City +0.5 | 71% | 1.96 | +40.1% |
| Derry City +0.75 | 76% | 1.73 | +30.5% |
| CSKA Sofia -0.75 | 59% | 2.08 | +23.1% |
| Derry City +1 | 80% | 1.51 | +21.0% |
| Derry City +1.5 | 88% | 1.35 | +19.3% |
| Derry City +1.25 | 84% | 1.40 | +17.8% |
| Derry City +1.75 | 90% | 1.24 | +12.0% |
| Derry City +2 | 92% | 1.14 | +5.3% |
| CSKA Sofia -0.5 | 53% | 1.80 | -4.0% |
| CSKA Sofia -0.25 | 47% | 1.61 | -23.8% |
| CSKA Sofia +0.25 | 35% | 1.31 | -54.3% |
| CSKA Sofia +0.5 | 29% | 1.28 | -63.5% |
| CSKA Sofia +0.75 | 24% | 1.25 | -69.6% |
| CSKA Sofia +1 | 20% | 1.10 | -77.9% |
| CSKA Sofia +1.25 | 16% | 1.10 | -82.6% |
| CSKA Sofia +1.5 | 12% | 1.11 | -87.1% |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
Our main pick is Derry City Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.35, with 88% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is CSKA Sofia to win by 1+ goals at 2.87 (+101.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia.
What is the predicted score for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 1.59 for Derry City and 1.19 for CSKA Sofia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Derry City and CSKA Sofia play?
Kick-off is Thursday 16 July 2026, 17:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.