⚽ Eredivisie

Excelsior vs Utrecht Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Excelsior vs Utrecht in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 10:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Excelsior face Utrecht in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 10:15 UTC. Recent form: Excelsior have 3 wins from their last 4, while Utrecht have 0 wins from their last 4. In their last 4 meetings, Excelsior won 1, Utrecht won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Utrecht win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.6-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Excelsior vs Utrecht with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Utrecht or Draw @ 1.62

69%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.56 – 1.57 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.4%	6.9%	5.4%	2.8%	1.1%
1	6.8%	10.7%	8.4%	4.4%	1.7%
2	5.3%	8.4%	6.6%	3.4%	1.3%
3	2.8%	4.3%	3.4%	1.8%	0.7%
4	1.1%	1.7%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Excelsior winDrawUtrecht win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Excelsior vs Utrecht is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Utrecht or Draw at odds 1.62, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates an Utrecht win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

Best value

Utrecht or Draw at odds 1.62, 69% model probability, +11.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Excelsior 33%Draw 24%Utrecht 44%

33%24%44%

44%

Utrecht Win

60%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

+11.3%

Best value: Utrecht or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Excelsior and Utrecht. Wins shown from Excelsior’s perspective: Excelsior 1 · 2 drawn · Utrecht 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-26	Excelsior	5 – 0	Utrecht	W
2025-08-24	Utrecht	4 – 1	Excelsior	L
2024-01-27	Excelsior	1 – 1	Utrecht	D
2023-11-12	Utrecht	2 – 2	Excelsior	D

📈 Recent form

Excelsior

Excelsior come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Cambuur. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to PSV Eindhoven.

WWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
LExcelsior 1-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WCambuur 0-4 ExcelsiorEredivisie

Utrecht

Utrecht come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 18. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-6 at home to PSV Eindhoven.

DUtrecht 3-3 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
LUtrecht 1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
DSparta Rotterdam 3-3 UtrechtEredivisie
LUtrecht 1-4 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
LGroningen 2-1 UtrechtEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Excelsior

N. NaujoksNot in squad

Utrecht

A. EngwandaHamstring Injury
V. JensenKnee Injury
M. JonathansKnee Injury
N. OhioKnee Injury
K. ParedesNot in squad
N. VesterlundInjury
J. van OvereemNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Excelsior at 33% to win and Utrecht at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes an Utrecht win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Utrecht Win	44%	@ 2.80	+22.7%
Draw	24%	@ 3.70	-12.7%
Excelsior Win	33%	@ 2.23	-27.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Utrecht or Draw at 1.62 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Utrecht or Draw	69%	@ 1.62	+11.3%
Excelsior or Draw	57%	@ 1.41	-19.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	38%	@ 2.65	+1.2%
Over 2.5	60%	@ 1.63	-1.3%
Over 1.5	82%	@ 1.19	-2.5%
Under 3.5	62%	@ 1.46	-9.8%
Under 2.5	40%	@ 2.23	-12.0%
Under 1.5	18%	@ 4.50	-18.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	63%	@ 1.53	-3.3%
BTTS No	37%	@ 2.35	-13.5%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Excelsior vs Utrecht?

Our main pick is Utrecht or Draw at odds 1.62, with 69% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Utrecht?

Our model makes an Utrecht win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.6 scoreline for Excelsior vs Utrecht.

What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Utrecht?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.56 for Excelsior and 1.57 for Utrecht. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Excelsior and Utrecht play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 10:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.