⚽ Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Utrecht Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Excelsior vs Utrecht in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 10:15 UTC.
Result: Excelsior 1-2 Utrecht
Excelsior vs Utrecht finished 1-2. Utrecht won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, Utrecht or Draw at 1.62, landed.
Excelsior face Utrecht in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 10:15 UTC. Recent form: Excelsior have 3 wins from their last 4, while Utrecht have no wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Excelsior won 1, Utrecht won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Utrecht win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.6-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Excelsior vs Utrecht with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Excelsior vs Utrecht comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Utrecht with a +1.25 start at odds 1.28, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Utrecht win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (64%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Excelsior and Utrecht. Wins shown from Excelsior’s perspective: Excelsior 1 · 2 drawn · Utrecht 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Excelsior | 1 – 2 | Utrecht | L |
| 2026-04-26 | Excelsior | 5 – 0 | Utrecht | W |
| 2025-08-24 | Utrecht | 4 – 1 | Excelsior | L |
| 2024-01-27 | Excelsior | 1 – 1 | Utrecht | D |
| 2023-11-12 | Utrecht | 2 – 2 | Excelsior | D |
📈 Recent form
Excelsior come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Utrecht.
- DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- LExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
- WWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Utrecht come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 18. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Excelsior. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Feyenoord.
- LFeyenoord 5-0 UtrechtEredivisie
- WExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
- DUtrecht 3-3 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- LUtrecht 1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- DSparta Rotterdam 3-3 UtrechtEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. NaujoksNot in squad
- O. AgougilNot in squad
- A. EngwandaHamstring Injury
- V. JensenKnee Injury
- M. JonathansKnee Injury
- N. OhioKnee Injury
- K. ParedesNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Excelsior at 33% to win and Utrecht at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes an Utrecht win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht Win | 43% | 33% | @ 2.80 |
| Excelsior Win | 33% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | @ 3.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Utrecht or Draw at 1.62 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht or Draw | 68% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
| Excelsior or Draw | 58% | 67% | @ 1.41 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 79% | @ 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 58% | @ 1.63 |
| Under 3.5 | 60% | 64% | @ 1.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 36% | @ 2.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
| Under 1.5 | 17% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 36% | 39% | @ 2.35 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Excelsior or Utrecht is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht +1.75 | 89% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Utrecht +1.5 | 87% | 76% | @ 1.24 |
| Excelsior +1.75 | 83% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Utrecht +1.25 | 82% | 74% | @ 1.28 |
| Excelsior +1.5 | 80% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Utrecht +1 | 78% | 71% | @ 1.35 |
| Excelsior +1.25 | 74% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Utrecht +0.75 | 73% | 63% | @ 1.51 |
| Excelsior +1 | 69% | – | 1.18 |
| Utrecht +0.5 | 68% | 56% | @ 1.70 |
| Excelsior +0.75 | 64% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Utrecht +0.25 | 62% | 51% | @ 1.89 |
| Excelsior +0.5 | 58% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Utrecht 0 | 55% | 42% | @ 2.27 |
| Excelsior +0.25 | 51% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Utrecht -0.25 | 49% | 36% | @ 2.64 |
| Excelsior 0 | 45% | 58% | 1.65 |
| Utrecht -0.5 | 42% | 32% | @ 3.02 |
| Excelsior -0.25 | 38% | 49% | 1.96 |
| Utrecht -0.75 | 36% | 26% | @ 3.67 |
| Excelsior -0.5 | 32% | 44% | 2.19 |
| Excelsior -0.75 | 27% | 37% | 2.56 |
| Utrecht -1.25 | 26% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Excelsior -1 | 22% | 29% | 3.23 |
| Utrecht -1.5 | 20% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Excelsior -1.25 | 18% | 26% | 3.67 |
| Utrecht -1.75 | 17% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Excelsior -1.5 | 13% | 24% | 3.90 |
| Excelsior -1.75 | 11% | 19% | 5.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Our model's main pick is Utrecht with a +1.25 start at odds 1.28, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Our model makes an Utrecht win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.6 scoreline for Excelsior vs Utrecht.
What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.62 for Excelsior and 1.57 for Utrecht. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Excelsior and Utrecht play?
Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 10:15 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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