⚽ Premiership
Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian in the Premiership. Kick-off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Falkirk 2-1 Heart Of Midlothian
Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian finished 2-1. Falkirk won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Heart Of Midlothian Asian Handicap with a +0.25 start at 1.30, did not land.
Falkirk face Heart Of Midlothian in the Premiership, kicking off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Falkirk have no wins from their last 5, while Heart Of Midlothian have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Falkirk won 1, Heart Of Midlothian won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Heart Of Midlothian win the most likely result at 73%, projecting a 1.2-3.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% |
| 1 | 1.8% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.0% |
| 2 | 1.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Heart Of Midlothian Asian Handicap with a +0.25 start at odds 1.30, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Heart Of Midlothian win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 73%. Goals lean over 2.5 (79%), both teams to score points yes (66%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Falkirk and Heart Of Midlothian. Wins shown from Falkirk’s perspective: Falkirk 1 · Heart Of Midlothian 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Falkirk | 2 – 1 | Heart Of Midlothian | W |
| 2026-05-13 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3 – 0 | Falkirk | L |
📈 Recent form
Falkirk come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Heart Of Midlothian. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Rangers.
- DSt Johnstone 1-1 FalkirkPremiership
- WFalkirk 2-1 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
- DDundee Utd 1-1 FalkirkPremiership
- LFalkirk 1-2 RangersPremiership
- LCeltic 2-1 FalkirkPremiership
Heart Of Midlothian come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Stenhousemuir. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Falkirk.
- DKilmarnock 1-1 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
- LFalkirk 2-1 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
- WStenhousemuir 0-3 Heart Of MidlothianLeague Cup
- WHeart Of Midlothian 2-1 DundeePremiership
- WHibernian 1-3 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Falkirk at 13% to win and Heart Of Midlothian at 73%, with the draw at 14%. Our model makes a Heart Of Midlothian win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian Win | 73% | 47% | @ 1.95 |
| Draw | 14% | 26% | @ 3.50 |
| Falkirk Win | 13% | 27% | @ 3.40 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Heart Of Midlothian or Draw at 1.29 (89% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian or Draw | 89% | 73% | @ 1.29 |
| Falkirk or Draw | 29% | 53% | @ 1.79 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-3.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 79% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 79% | @ 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 | 79% | 57% | @ 1.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 35% | @ 2.65 |
| Under 3.5 | 40% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 43% | @ 2.17 |
| Under 1.5 | 8% | 21% | @ 4.35 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 60% | @ 1.54 |
| BTTS No | 34% | 40% | @ 2.28 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Falkirk or Heart Of Midlothian is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian +1.5 | 97% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Heart Of Midlothian +1.25 | 95% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Heart Of Midlothian +1 | 93% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Heart Of Midlothian +0.75 | 91% | – | @ 1.18 |
| Heart Of Midlothian +0.5 | 89% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Heart Of Midlothian +0.25 | 84% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Heart Of Midlothian 0 | 80% | 69% | @ 1.39 |
| Heart Of Midlothian -0.25 | 76% | 59% | @ 1.61 |
| Heart Of Midlothian -0.5 | 71% | 52% | @ 1.84 |
| Heart Of Midlothian -0.75 | 65% | 46% | @ 2.12 |
| Falkirk +2 | 63% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Heart Of Midlothian -1 | 59% | 38% | @ 2.53 |
| Falkirk +1.75 | 58% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Heart Of Midlothian -1.25 | 53% | 33% | @ 2.87 |
| Falkirk +1.5 | 53% | – | 1.35 |
| Falkirk +1.25 | 47% | 67% | 1.43 |
| Heart Of Midlothian -1.75 | 42% | 25% | @ 3.70 |
| Falkirk +1 | 41% | 62% | 1.53 |
| Heart Of Midlothian -2 | 37% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Falkirk +0.75 | 35% | 54% | 1.77 |
| Falkirk +0.5 | 29% | 48% | 2.00 |
| Falkirk +0.25 | 24% | 41% | 2.34 |
| Falkirk 0 | 20% | 31% | 3.03 |
| Falkirk -0.25 | 16% | 27% | 3.48 |
| Falkirk -0.5 | 11% | 24% | 4.01 |
| Falkirk -1 | 7% | 14% | 7.00 |
| Falkirk -1.25 | 5% | 14% | 7.00 |
| Falkirk -1.5 | 3% | 14% | 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian?
Our model's main pick is Heart Of Midlothian Asian Handicap with a +0.25 start at odds 1.30, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 77%.
Who is the favourite for Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian?
Our model makes a Heart Of Midlothian win the most likely result at 73%. It projects an expected 1.2-3.0 scoreline for Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian.
What is the predicted score for Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.22 for Falkirk and 2.99 for Heart Of Midlothian. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Falkirk and Heart Of Midlothian play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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