FK Jablonec

Thu 22 Oct16:45Upcoming

⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

FK Jablonec vs Brighton Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FK Jablonec vs Brighton in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

FK Jablonec face Brighton in the UEFA Europa Conference League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC. Recent form: FK Jablonec have 1 win from their last 3, while Brighton have 2 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FK Jablonec win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.7-0.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FK Jablonec vs Brighton with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.62

85%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.69 – 0.35 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.0%	4.6%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
1	22.0%	7.7%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%
2	18.6%	6.5%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%
3	10.5%	3.7%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
4	4.4%	1.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

FK Jablonec winDrawBrighton win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for FK Jablonec vs Brighton comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a FK Jablonec win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points no (76%).

📊 Key numbers

FK Jablonec 43%Draw 33%Brighton 24%

43%33%24%

43%

FK Jablonec Win

67%

Under 2.5 goals

76%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

FK Jablonec

FK Jablonec come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Zbrojovka Brno. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Plzen.

LFK Jablonec 2-3 PlzenCzech Liga
LSC Freiburg 3-2 FK JablonecUEFA Europa Conference
WZbrojovka Brno 0-1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
WDukla Praha 0-1 FK JablonecCup
DFK Jablonec 1-1 ZlinCzech Liga

Brighton

Brighton come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Crystal Palace. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WBrighton 5-0 Crystal PalacePremier League
WBrighton 4-0 Kauno ŽalgirisUEFA Europa Conference
WSunderland 0-2 BrightonPremier League
WBrighton 3-0 ArsenalPremier League
WManchester United 2-3 BrightonLeague Cup

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices FK Jablonec at 43% to win and Brighton at 24%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a FK Jablonec win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FK Jablonec Win	43%	9%	@ 10.00
Draw	33%	15%	@ 6.25
Brighton Win	24%	75%	@ 1.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FK Jablonec or Draw at 3.75 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FK Jablonec or Draw	72%	25%	@ 3.75
Brighton or Draw	53%	91%	@ 1.06

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	85%	58%	@ 1.62
Under 2.5	67%	38%	@ 2.50
Over 1.5	60%	83%	@ 1.14
Under 1.5	40%	17%	@ 5.50
Over 2.5	33%	62%	@ 1.50
Over 3.5	15%	42%	@ 2.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 76%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	76%	51%	@ 1.80
BTTS Yes	24%	49%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

FK Jablonec 9%Draw 15%Brighton 75%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	71%
GradientBoosting	Draw	36%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.52 for the home side, 1.10 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (22%), 2-0 (19%), 0-0 (13%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FK Jablonec vs Brighton?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 58%.

Who is the favourite for FK Jablonec vs Brighton?

Our model makes a FK Jablonec win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.3 scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Brighton.

What is the predicted score for FK Jablonec vs Brighton?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.69 for FK Jablonec and 0.35 for Brighton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do FK Jablonec and Brighton play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.