⚽ Eredivisie
Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Result: Fortuna Sittard 1-5 Ajax
Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax finished 1-5. Ajax won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.84, did not land.
Fortuna Sittard face Ajax in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Fortuna Sittard have 3 wins from their last 5, while Ajax have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Ajax won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.2-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| 2 | 3.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Fortuna Sittard with a +2 start at odds 1.43, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Ajax win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Fortuna Sittard and Ajax. Wins shown from Fortuna Sittard’s perspective: Ajax 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 – 5 | Ajax | L |
| 2026-02-14 | Ajax | 4 – 1 | Fortuna Sittard | L |
| 2025-12-06 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 – 3 | Ajax | L |
| 2025-02-09 | Fortuna Sittard | 0 – 2 | Ajax | L |
| 2024-09-18 | Ajax | 5 – 0 | Fortuna Sittard | L |
📈 Recent form
Fortuna Sittard come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Willem II. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at home to Ajax.
- WWillem II 0-1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- LFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie
- WADO Den Haag 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- WGroningen 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- LFortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
Ajax come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- WAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
- WFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie
- LAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WTelstar 0-4 AjaxEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- R. BayramKnee Injury
- I. MarquezInjury
- Y. OukiliGroin Injury
- K. PetersonNot in squad
- S. SimonsHamstring Injury
- S. WylinInjury
- S. AdingraFoot Injury
- D. BlindInjury
- A. BouwmanInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Fortuna Sittard at 24% to win and Ajax at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax Win | 53% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
| Fortuna Sittard Win | 24% | 14% | @ 6.50 |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ajax or Draw at 1.10 (77% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax or Draw | 77% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Fortuna Sittard or Draw | 48% | 33% | @ 2.85 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 86% | @ 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 | 61% | 51% | @ 1.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 49% | @ 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 14% | @ 6.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 61% | @ 1.52 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Fortuna Sittard or Ajax is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax +0.75 | 80% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Fortuna Sittard +2 | 80% | 67% | @ 1.43 |
| Ajax +0.5 | 77% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Fortuna Sittard +1.75 | 76% | 59% | @ 1.60 |
| Fortuna Sittard +1.5 | 72% | 54% | @ 1.77 |
| Ajax +0.25 | 71% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Fortuna Sittard +1.25 | 66% | 48% | @ 1.99 |
| Ajax 0 | 64% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Fortuna Sittard +1 | 60% | 41% | @ 2.31 |
| Ajax -0.25 | 58% | 74% | 1.29 |
| Fortuna Sittard +0.75 | 54% | 37% | @ 2.60 |
| Ajax -0.5 | 52% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Fortuna Sittard +0.5 | 48% | 33% | @ 2.87 |
| Ajax -0.75 | 46% | 63% | 1.50 |
| Fortuna Sittard +0.25 | 42% | 26% | @ 3.58 |
| Ajax -1 | 40% | 59% | 1.63 |
| Fortuna Sittard 0 | 36% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Ajax -1.25 | 34% | 52% | 1.85 |
| Fortuna Sittard -0.25 | 29% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Ajax -1.5 | 28% | 46% | 2.08 |
| Ajax -1.75 | 24% | 41% | 2.35 |
| Fortuna Sittard -0.5 | 23% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Ajax -2 | 20% | 33% | 2.83 |
| Fortuna Sittard -0.75 | 20% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?
Our model's main pick is Fortuna Sittard with a +2 start at odds 1.43, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 67%.
Who is the favourite for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?
Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.9 scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax.
What is the predicted score for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.24 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.92 for Ajax. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Fortuna Sittard and Ajax play?
Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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