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⚽ Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

FSV Mainz 05 face Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: FSV Mainz 05 have 3 wins from their last 5, while Werder Bremen have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 1, Werder Bremen won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.7-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.62

63%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.68 – 1.38 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.7%	6.5%	4.5%	2.1%	0.7%
1	7.9%	10.9%	7.5%	3.5%	1.2%
2	6.6%	9.1%	6.3%	2.9%	1.0%
3	3.7%	5.1%	3.5%	1.6%	0.6%
4	1.6%	2.1%	1.5%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

FSV Mainz 05 winDrawWerder Bremen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 63% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (61%).

📊 Key numbers

FSV Mainz 05 45%Draw 26%Werder Bremen 29%

45%26%29%

45%

FSV Mainz 05 Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen. Wins shown from FSV Mainz 05’s perspective: FSV Mainz 05 1 · 1 drawn · Werder Bremen 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-15	Werder Bremen	0 – 2	FSV Mainz 05	W
2025-11-01	FSV Mainz 05	1 – 1	Werder Bremen	D
2025-01-31	Werder Bremen	1 – 0	FSV Mainz 05	L
2024-09-15	FSV Mainz 05	1 – 2	Werder Bremen	L
2024-02-03	FSV Mainz 05	0 – 1	Werder Bremen	L

📈 Recent form

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Waldhof Mannheim. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 3-4 at home to Bayer Leverkusen.

WFC Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
LFSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
WWaldhof Mannheim 0-3 FSV Mainz 05Friendlies Clubs
WBorussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
LFSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga

Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to RB Leipzig. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DWerder Bremen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
DBorussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder BremenBundesliga
WWerder Bremen 3-2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
D1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
WWerder Bremen 3-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices FSV Mainz 05 at 45% to win and Werder Bremen at 29%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FSV Mainz 05 Win	45%	56%	@ 1.67
Werder Bremen Win	29%	21%	@ 4.50
Draw	26%	23%	@ 4.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FSV Mainz 05 or Draw at 1.18 (71% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FSV Mainz 05 or Draw	71%	79%	@ 1.18
Werder Bremen or Draw	55%	44%	@ 2.15

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	63%	59%	@ 1.62
Over 2.5	59%	62%	@ 1.53
Under 2.5	41%	38%	@ 2.50
Over 3.5	37%	41%	@ 2.30
Under 1.5	19%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	39%	39%	@ 2.38

📈 How the market moved

FSV Mainz 05 56%Draw 23%Werder Bremen 22%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 63% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 59%.

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

Our model makes a FSV Mainz 05 win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen.

What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.68 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.38 for Werder Bremen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.