⚽ Serie A

Genoa vs Como Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Genoa vs Como in the Serie A. Kick-off Friday 04 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Genoa face Como in the Serie A, kicking off Friday 04 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Genoa have 0 wins from their last 5, while Como have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Como won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Como win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 0.9-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Genoa vs Como with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.38

72%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.94 – 1.59 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.0%	12.7%	10.1%	5.3%	2.1%
1	7.5%	11.9%	9.5%	5.0%	2.0%
2	3.5%	5.6%	4.4%	2.4%	0.9%
3	1.1%	1.8%	1.4%	0.7%	0.3%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-1

Genoa winDrawComo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Genoa vs Como is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates a Como win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points no (52%).

Best value

Over 1.5 at odds 1.38, 72% model probability, -0.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Genoa 19%Draw 28%Como 53%

19%28%53%

53%

Como Win

54%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

-0.8%

Best value: Over 1.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Genoa and Como. Wins shown from Genoa’s perspective: 2 drawn · Como 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-26	Genoa	0 – 2	Como	L
2025-09-15	Como	1 – 1	Genoa	D
2025-04-27	Como	1 – 0	Genoa	L
2024-11-07	Genoa	1 – 1	Como	D

📈 Recent form

Genoa

Genoa come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 15. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Ascoli. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Lazio.

LLazio 1-0 GenoaSerie A
LGenoa 0-2 NapoliSerie A
WGenoa 4-1 AscoliCoppa Italia
LGenoa 0-1 Deportivo La CorunaFriendlies Clubs
LBournemouth 10-1 GenoaFriendlies Clubs

Como

Como come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Napoli. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Liverpool.

WNapoli 1-2 ComoSerie A
DUdinese 1-1 ComoSerie A
LLiverpool 2-0 ComoFriendlies Clubs
DArsenal 1-1 ComoFriendlies Clubs
WFamalicao 2-3 ComoComo Cup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 3 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Genoa

L. VenturinoKnee Injury

Como

J. AddaiAchilles Tendon Injury
M. KeanTransfer negotiations

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Genoa at 19% to win and Como at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Como win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Como Win	53%	@ 1.80	-4.9%
Genoa Win	19%	@ 5.00	-5.6%
Draw	28%	@ 3.15	-11.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Como or Draw at 1.16 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Como or Draw	79%	@ 1.16	-8.5%
Genoa or Draw	45%	@ 1.96	-12.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	25%	@ 4.20	+4.5%
Over 2.5	46%	@ 2.25	+4.4%
Over 1.5	72%	@ 1.38	-0.8%
Under 3.5	75%	@ 1.21	-9.1%
Under 2.5	54%	@ 1.61	-13.7%
Under 1.5	28%	@ 2.95	-17.0%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	48%	@ 2.02	-3.5%
BTTS No	52%	@ 1.74	-9.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	44%
Dixon-Coles	Away	60%
GradientBoosting	Away	53%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 0.97 for the home side, 1.73 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (14%), 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (11%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Genoa vs Como?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, with 72% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Genoa vs Como?

Our model makes a Como win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.6 scoreline for Genoa vs Como.

What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Como?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.94 for Genoa and 1.59 for Como. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Genoa and Como play?

Kick-off is Friday 04 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.