Sat 12 Sep1-1Finished

⚽ Serie A

Genoa vs Frosinone Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Genoa vs Frosinone in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Genoa 1-1 Frosinone

Genoa vs Frosinone finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.32, landed.

Genoa face Frosinone in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Genoa have no wins from their last 5, while Frosinone have 2 wins from their last 3. In their last 3 meetings, Frosinone won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Genoa win the most likely result at 34%, projecting a 1.3-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Genoa vs Frosinone with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Frosinone +1.5 @ 1.26

83%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.28 – 1.54 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	9.2%	7.1%	3.6%	1.4%
1	7.6%	11.7%	9.0%	4.6%	1.8%
2	4.9%	7.5%	5.8%	3.0%	1.1%
3	2.1%	3.2%	2.5%	1.3%	0.5%
4	0.7%	1.0%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Genoa winDrawFrosinone win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Genoa vs Frosinone comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Frosinone with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, with a 83% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Genoa win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 34%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Genoa 34%Draw 33%Frosinone 32%

34%33%32%

34%

Genoa Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Genoa and Frosinone. Wins shown from Genoa’s perspective: 2 drawn · Frosinone 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-12	Genoa	1 – 1	Frosinone	D
2024-03-30	Genoa	1 – 1	Frosinone	D
2023-11-26	Frosinone	2 – 1	Genoa	L

📈 Recent form

Genoa

Genoa come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Sudtirol. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Parma.

LParma 2-1 GenoaSerie A
WGenoa 1-0 SudtirolCoppa Italia
DGenoa 1-1 FrosinoneSerie A
LGenoa 1-4 ComoSerie A
LLazio 1-0 GenoaSerie A

Frosinone

Frosinone come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Fiorentina. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WFrosinone 2-0 ComoSerie A
DGenoa 1-1 FrosinoneSerie A
WFrosinone 3-2 VeneziaSerie A
DSassuolo 1-1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
WFiorentina 0-3 FrosinoneSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Genoa

E. HavelAnkle Injury
L. VenturinoKnee Injury

Frosinone

No absentees reported.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Genoa at 34% to win and Frosinone at 32%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Genoa win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Genoa Win	34%	48%	@ 1.93
Draw	33%	27%	@ 3.40
Frosinone Win	32%	24%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Genoa or Draw at 1.25 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Genoa or Draw	64%	76%	@ 1.25
Frosinone or Draw	62%	52%	@ 1.83

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	72%	@ 1.32
Under 3.5	69%	74%	@ 1.28
Over 2.5	54%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	46%	53%	@ 1.77
Over 3.5	31%	26%	@ 3.60
Under 1.5	23%	28%	@ 3.35

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	51%	@ 1.82
BTTS No	47%	49%	@ 1.92

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Genoa or Frosinone is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Frosinone +2	88%	86%	1.10
Frosinone +1.75	86%	83%	1.15
Frosinone +1.5	83%	76%	@ 1.26
Genoa +1.25	79%	86%	1.11
Frosinone +1.25	78%	74%	@ 1.29
Genoa +1	74%	85%	1.12
Frosinone +1	72%	71%	1.34
Genoa +0.75	69%	79%	1.23
Frosinone +0.75	67%	62%	@ 1.52
Genoa +0.5	64%	72%	1.32
Frosinone +0.5	62%	56%	@ 1.71
Genoa +0.25	58%	68%	1.42
Frosinone +0.25	56%	49%	@ 2.00
Genoa 0	51%	61%	1.56
Frosinone 0	49%	39%	@ 2.46
Genoa -0.25	44%	51%	1.89
Frosinone -0.25	42%	32%	@ 2.94
Genoa -0.5	38%	44%	2.17
Frosinone -0.5	36%	28%	@ 3.40
Genoa -0.75	33%	38%	2.54
Frosinone -0.75	31%	21%	@ 4.56
Genoa -1	28%	29%	3.29
Frosinone -1	26%	15%	@ 6.25
Genoa -1.25	22%	26%	3.62
Frosinone -1.25	21%	14%	@ 6.60
Genoa -1.5	17%	24%	3.92
Genoa -1.75	14%	17%	5.50
Genoa -2	12%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Genoa 44%Draw 29%Frosinone 27%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Genoa vs Frosinone?

Our model's main pick is Frosinone with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, with a 83% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Genoa vs Frosinone?

Our model makes a Genoa win the most likely result at 34%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline for Genoa vs Frosinone.

What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Frosinone?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.28 for Genoa and 1.54 for Frosinone. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Genoa and Frosinone play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.