Sun 30 Aug3-1Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Grêmio vs Chapecoense Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Grêmio vs Chapecoense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Grêmio 3-1 Chapecoense

Grêmio vs Chapecoense finished 3-1. Grêmio won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Grêmio face Chapecoense in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 21:30 UTC. Recent form: Grêmio have 1 win from their last 5, while Chapecoense have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Grêmio win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.6-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Grêmio vs Chapecoense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Chapecoense +1.75 @ 1.38

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.63 – 0.98 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4%	7.2%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%
1	12.0%	11.7%	5.8%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.8%	9.6%	4.7%	1.5%	0.4%
3	5.3%	5.2%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.2%	2.1%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Grêmio winDrawChapecoense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Chapecoense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Chapecoense with a +1.75 start at odds 1.38, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Grêmio win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Grêmio 48%Draw 32%Chapecoense 20%

48%32%20%

48%

Grêmio Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Grêmio

Grêmio come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Botafogo.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
LGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
LVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
WGrêmio 3-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil

Chapecoense

Chapecoense come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Internacional.

DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
LChapecoense 1-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
WCorinthians 1-2 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
LGrêmio 3-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
WChapecoense 1-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Grêmio

Diego CaitoShoulder Injury
DodiKnee Injury
Gabriel MecNot in squad
J. NardoniKnee Injury
E. NoriegaSuspended (cards)

Chapecoense

Y. BolasieInjury
Bruno TubaraoNot in squad
Camilo ReijersSuspended (cards)
Joao PauloHealth problems
Max AlvesInjury
Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Grêmio at 48% to win and Chapecoense at 20%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Grêmio win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Grêmio Win	48%	61%	@ 1.53
Draw	32%	23%	@ 4.00
Chapecoense Win	20%	16%	@ 5.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Grêmio or Draw at 1.12 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Grêmio or Draw	76%	84%	@ 1.12
Chapecoense or Draw	48%	39%	@ 2.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	76%	@ 1.24
Under 3.5	73%	69%	@ 1.35
Under 2.5	52%	48%	@ 1.96
Over 2.5	48%	52%	@ 1.80
Over 3.5	27%	31%	@ 3.05
Under 1.5	26%	24%	@ 3.85

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	50%	@ 1.85
BTTS No	49%	50%	@ 1.85

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Grêmio or Chapecoense is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Chapecoense +2	80%	77%	1.23
Grêmio +0.5	76%	83%	1.14
Chapecoense +1.75	76%	69%	@ 1.38
Chapecoense +1.5	72%	63%	@ 1.50
Grêmio +0.25	70%	81%	1.17
Chapecoense +1.25	66%	58%	@ 1.66
Grêmio 0	64%	79%	1.20
Chapecoense +1	60%	50%	@ 1.89
Grêmio -0.25	58%	69%	1.37
Chapecoense +0.75	54%	44%	@ 2.19
Grêmio -0.5	52%	62%	1.51
Chapecoense +0.5	48%	38%	@ 2.45
Grêmio -0.75	46%	56%	1.69
Chapecoense +0.25	42%	31%	@ 3.09
Grêmio -1	40%	50%	1.93
Chapecoense 0	36%	21%	@ 4.56
Grêmio -1.25	34%	42%	2.24
Chapecoense -0.25	30%	19%	@ 5.00
Grêmio -1.5	28%	37%	2.50
Grêmio -1.75	24%	31%	3.08
Chapecoense -0.5	24%	17%	@ 5.75
Grêmio -2	20%	23%	4.17

📈 How the market moved

Grêmio 61%Draw 23%Chapecoense 16%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Grêmio vs Chapecoense?

Our model's main pick is Chapecoense with a +1.75 start at odds 1.38, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for Grêmio vs Chapecoense?

Our model makes a Grêmio win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.0 scoreline for Grêmio vs Chapecoense.

What is the predicted score for Grêmio vs Chapecoense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.63 for Grêmio and 0.98 for Chapecoense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Grêmio and Chapecoense play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.