⚽ Brazilian Série A
Grêmio vs Cruzeiro Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Grêmio 2-4 Cruzeiro
Grêmio vs Cruzeiro finished 2-4. Cruzeiro won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Grêmio face Cruzeiro in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Grêmio have no wins from their last 5, while Cruzeiro have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Cruzeiro won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.2-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is Cruzeiro with a +0.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Cruzeiro win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Grêmio and Cruzeiro. Wins shown from Grêmio’s perspective: 1 drawn · Cruzeiro 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Grêmio | 2 – 4 | Cruzeiro | L |
| 2026-07-12 | Grêmio | 1 – 3 | Cruzeiro | L |
| 2026-04-18 | Cruzeiro | 2 – 0 | Grêmio | L |
| 2024-11-28 | Cruzeiro | 1 – 1 | Grêmio | D |
| 2024-07-10 | Grêmio | 0 – 2 | Cruzeiro | L |
📈 Recent form
Grêmio come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 2-4 at home to Cruzeiro.
- LGrêmio 2-4 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- DGrêmio 1-1 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
- DRemo 1-1 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
- DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
- LBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
Cruzeiro come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Grêmio. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-4 at RB Bragantino.
- WGrêmio 2-4 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- LRB Bragantino 4-2 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- WCruzeiro 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
- WVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- LSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. CabralNot in squad
- Matheus NascimentoNot in squad
- J. NardoniNot in squad
- WallaceSuspended (cards)
- Felipe MoraisSuspended (cards)
- Gabriel PecBroken Leg
- L. SinisterraMuscle Injury
- N. VillarrealAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Grêmio at 34% to win and Cruzeiro at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro Win | 36% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
| Grêmio Win | 34% | 34% | @ 2.80 |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.40 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro or Draw | 64% | 66% | @ 1.40 |
| Grêmio or Draw | 62% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 74% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 53% | @ 1.80 |
| Under 1.5 | 27% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 32% | @ 3.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 48% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Grêmio or Cruzeiro is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio +1.75 | 86% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Cruzeiro +1.5 | 84% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Grêmio +1.5 | 83% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Cruzeiro +1.25 | 79% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Grêmio +1.25 | 78% | 78% | 1.21 |
| Cruzeiro +1 | 74% | – | 1.19 |
| Grêmio +1 | 73% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Cruzeiro +0.75 | 69% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Grêmio +0.75 | 68% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Cruzeiro +0.5 | 64% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Grêmio +0.5 | 62% | 61% | 1.55 |
| Cruzeiro +0.25 | 57% | 61% | 1.56 |
| Grêmio +0.25 | 56% | 55% | 1.74 |
| Cruzeiro 0 | 51% | 54% | 1.79 |
| Grêmio 0 | 49% | 46% | @ 2.08 |
| Cruzeiro -0.25 | 44% | 45% | 2.10 |
| Grêmio -0.25 | 43% | 39% | @ 2.43 |
| Cruzeiro -0.5 | 38% | 39% | 2.43 |
| Grêmio -0.5 | 36% | 34% | @ 2.81 |
| Cruzeiro -0.75 | 32% | 33% | 2.89 |
| Grêmio -0.75 | 31% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Cruzeiro -1 | 27% | 24% | @ 3.92 |
| Cruzeiro -1.25 | 22% | 22% | 4.25 |
| Grêmio -1.25 | 21% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Cruzeiro -1.5 | 17% | 20% | 4.65 |
| Grêmio -1.5 | 16% | 17% | 5.75 |
| Cruzeiro -1.75 | 14% | 15% | 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro?
Our pick is Cruzeiro with a +0.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro?
Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro.
What is the predicted score for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.24 for Grêmio and 1.36 for Cruzeiro. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Grêmio and Cruzeiro play?
Kick-off is Sunday 18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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