Sat 12 Sep1-2Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Grêmio 1-2 Vasco da Gama

Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama finished 1-2. Vasco da Gama won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.25, landed.

Grêmio face Vasco da Gama in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Grêmio have 2 wins from their last 5, while Vasco da Gama have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Grêmio won 2, Vasco da Gama won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Grêmio win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.28

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.52 – 0.93 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.6%	8.0%	3.7%	1.2%	0.3%
1	13.1%	12.2%	5.7%	1.8%	0.4%
2	10.0%	9.3%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	5.1%	4.7%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.9%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Grêmio winDrawVasco da Gama win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Grêmio win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Grêmio 43%Draw 31%Vasco da Gama 26%

43%31%26%

43%

Grêmio Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Grêmio and Vasco da Gama. Wins shown from Grêmio’s perspective: Grêmio 2 · Vasco da Gama 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-12	Grêmio	1 – 2	Vasco da Gama	L
2024-07-28	Grêmio	1 – 0	Vasco da Gama	W
2024-04-14	Vasco da Gama	2 – 1	Grêmio	L
2023-12-03	Grêmio	1 – 0	Vasco da Gama	W
2023-08-06	Vasco da Gama	1 – 0	Grêmio	L

📈 Recent form

Grêmio

Grêmio come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Botafogo.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
LGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
LVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
WGrêmio 3-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Coritiba. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Fluminense.

WVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WVasco da Gama 2-0 Santa FeCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
DSanta Fe 0-0 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Grêmio

F. AmuzuNot in squad
DodiKnee Injury
MarlonInjury
C. PavonSuspended (cards)

Vasco da Gama

BrennerKnee Injury
Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Grêmio at 43% to win and Vasco da Gama at 26%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Grêmio win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Grêmio Win	43%	37%	@ 2.60
Draw	31%	30%	@ 3.20
Vasco da Gama Win	26%	33%	@ 2.88

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Grêmio or Draw at 1.40 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Grêmio or Draw	72%	67%	@ 1.40
Vasco da Gama or Draw	54%	63%	@ 1.44

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	77%	75%	@ 1.28
Over 1.5	70%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	56%	55%	@ 1.73
Over 2.5	44%	45%	@ 2.08
Under 1.5	30%	28%	@ 3.40
Over 3.5	23%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS Yes	48%	52%	@ 1.80

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Grêmio or Vasco da Gama is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Grêmio +1.5	89%	84%	@ 1.13
Grêmio +1.25	84%	83%	1.15
Vasco da Gama +1.75	81%	86%	1.10
Grêmio +1	80%	81%	1.18
Vasco da Gama +1.5	77%	83%	1.15
Grêmio +0.75	76%	73%	1.31
Grêmio +0.5	72%	65%	@ 1.46
Vasco da Gama +1.25	72%	80%	1.20
Vasco da Gama +1	66%	78%	1.22
Grêmio +0.25	65%	60%	@ 1.59
Vasco da Gama +0.75	60%	70%	1.36
Grêmio 0	59%	52%	@ 1.85
Vasco da Gama +0.5	54%	63%	1.53
Grêmio -0.25	52%	43%	@ 2.21
Vasco da Gama +0.25	48%	57%	1.68
Grêmio -0.5	46%	37%	@ 2.58
Vasco da Gama 0	41%	48%	2.02
Grêmio -0.75	40%	30%	@ 3.12
Vasco da Gama -0.25	35%	40%	2.38
Grêmio -1	34%	22%	@ 4.39
Grêmio -1.25	28%	20%	@ 4.67
Vasco da Gama -0.5	28%	35%	2.75
Vasco da Gama -0.75	24%	27%	3.49
Grêmio -1.5	23%	17%	@ 5.50
Vasco da Gama -1	20%	19%	4.99
Grêmio -1.75	19%	14%	@ 7.00
Vasco da Gama -1.25	16%	17%	5.50
Vasco da Gama -1.5	11%	16%	5.90

📈 How the market moved

Grêmio 37%Draw 29%Vasco da Gama 34%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama?

Our model makes a Grêmio win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama.

What is the predicted score for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.52 for Grêmio and 0.93 for Vasco da Gama. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Grêmio and Vasco da Gama play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.