⚽ Brazilian Série A

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Gremio face Vasco DA Gama in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Gremio have 2 wins from their last 5, while Vasco DA Gama have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Gremio won 2, Vasco DA Gama won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Gremio win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.28

77%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.52 – 0.93 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.6%	8.0%	3.7%	1.2%	0.3%
1	13.1%	12.2%	5.7%	1.8%	0.4%
2	10.0%	9.3%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	5.1%	4.7%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.9%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Gremio winDrawVasco DA Gama win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 77%. On the match result, the model rates a Gremio win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 1.95 (+1.7% model value).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 1.95, 52% model probability, +1.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Gremio 43%Draw 31%Vasco DA Gama 26%

43%31%26%

43%

Gremio Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

+1.7%

Best value: BTTS No

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Gremio and Vasco DA Gama. Wins shown from Gremio’s perspective: Gremio 2 · Vasco DA Gama 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-07-28	Gremio	1 – 0	Vasco DA Gama	W
2024-04-14	Vasco DA Gama	2 – 1	Gremio	L
2023-12-03	Gremio	1 – 0	Vasco DA Gama	W
2023-08-06	Vasco DA Gama	1 – 0	Gremio	L

📈 Recent form

Gremio

Gremio come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Vitoria.

LVitoria 1-0 GremioBrazilian Série A
WGremio 3-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil
WGremio 3-1 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A
DInternacional 0-0 GremioCopa Do Brasil
LRB Bragantino 1-0 GremioBrazilian Série A

Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Vitoria. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Fluminense.

DSanta Fe 0-0 Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LFluminense 1-0 Vasco DA GamaBrazilian Série A
WVitoria 0-2 Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
WVasco DA Gama 3-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
WVasco DA Gama 1-0 VitoriaCopa Do Brasil

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Gremio

F. AmuzuNot in squad
J. CabralMuscle Injury
DodiKnee Injury
C. PavonSuspended (cards)

Vasco DA Gama

BrennerKnee Injury
CuiabanoMuscle Injury
JairMuscle Injury
Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury
AdsonInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Gremio at 43% to win and Vasco DA Gama at 26%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Gremio win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Gremio Win	43%	@ 2.55	+10.5%
Draw	31%	@ 3.20	-1.6%
Vasco DA Gama Win	26%	@ 2.90	-24.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Gremio or Draw at 1.40 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Gremio or Draw	72%	@ 1.40	+0.2%
Vasco DA Gama or Draw	54%	@ 1.50	-18.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	30%	@ 3.40	+1.2%
Under 3.5	77%	@ 1.28	-1.7%
Under 2.5	56%	@ 1.73	-3.7%
Over 1.5	70%	@ 1.33	-6.6%
Over 2.5	44%	@ 2.08	-7.8%
Over 3.5	23%	@ 3.75	-13.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	52%	@ 1.95	+1.7%
BTTS Yes	48%	@ 1.80	-13.9%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with 77% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 1.95 (+1.7% value).

Who is the favourite for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our model makes a Gremio win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama.

What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.52 for Gremio and 0.93 for Vasco DA Gama. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Gremio and Vasco DA Gama play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.