⚽ Bundesliga

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Hamburger SV face FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Hamburger SV have 2 wins from their last 5, while FSV Mainz 05 have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Hamburger SV won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Hamburger SV win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.4-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.45

69%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.42 – 1.40 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	8.3%	5.8%	2.7%	1.0%
1	8.5%	11.8%	8.3%	3.9%	1.4%
2	6.0%	8.4%	5.9%	2.7%	1.0%
3	2.8%	4.0%	2.8%	1.3%	0.5%
4	1.0%	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Hamburger SV winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.45, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a Hamburger SV win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (57%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.45, 69% model probability, -0.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Hamburger SV 35%Draw 30%FSV Mainz 05 35%

35%30%35%

35%

Hamburger SV Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

-0.3%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05. Wins shown from Hamburger SV’s perspective: Hamburger SV 1 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-20	FSV Mainz 05	1 – 1	Hamburger SV	D
2025-10-05	Hamburger SV	4 – 0	FSV Mainz 05	W

📈 Recent form

Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Verl. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Borussia Dortmund.

LBorussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
WVerl 0-3 Hamburger SVDFB Pokal
WToulouse 1-2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
DHamburger SV 2-2 LilleFriendlies Clubs
LHamburger SV 1-2 EvertonFriendlies Clubs

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 9-0 at Krieschow.

DFSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
WKrieschow 0-9 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal
WFSV Mainz 05 2-1 BournemouthFriendlies Clubs
DUdinese 3-3 FSV Mainz 05Friendlies Clubs
WFSV Mainz 05 1-0 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Hamburger SV

W. OmariPersonal Reasons
A. Rossing-LelesiitAnkle Injury
M. MuheimMuscle Injury

FSV Mainz 05

D. KohrFoot Injury
E. MartelKnee Injury
P. NebelMuscle Injury
SilasBroken shinbone
B. HollerbachLacking Match Fitness

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Hamburger SV at 35% to win and FSV Mainz 05 at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Hamburger SV win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	30%	@ 3.50	+4.2%
Hamburger SV Win	35%	@ 2.70	-5.0%
FSV Mainz 05 Win	35%	@ 2.40	-15.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Hamburger SV or Draw at 1.55 (63% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Hamburger SV or Draw	63%	@ 1.55	-1.9%
FSV Mainz 05 or Draw	63%	@ 1.44	-9.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	46%	@ 2.17	+0.8%
Under 1.5	23%	@ 4.40	+0.2%
Under 3.5	69%	@ 1.45	-0.3%
Over 1.5	77%	@ 1.20	-7.3%
Over 2.5	54%	@ 1.66	-11.1%
Over 3.5	31%	@ 2.70	-15.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	43%	@ 2.35	+1.2%
BTTS Yes	57%	@ 1.53	-12.9%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	43%
Dixon-Coles	Away	41%
GradientBoosting	Away	34%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.30 for the home side, 1.29 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.45, with 69% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?

Our model makes a Hamburger SV win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05.

What is the predicted score for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.42 for Hamburger SV and 1.40 for FSV Mainz 05. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05 play?

Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.