vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
Inter Miami vs Toronto FC Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Inter Miami vs Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Inter Miami face Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Inter Miami won 4, Toronto FC won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Inter Miami win the most likely result at 70%, projecting a 2.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Inter Miami vs Toronto FC with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Inter Miami vs Toronto FC is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Toronto FC with a +2 start at odds 1.59, the selection our model is most confident in at 66%. On the match result, the model rates an Inter Miami win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 70%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (62%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Toronto FC with a +1.75 start at odds 1.78 (+8.1% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Inter Miami and Toronto FC. Wins shown from Inter Miami’s perspective: Inter Miami 4 · Toronto FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Toronto FC | 2 – 4 | Inter Miami | W |
| 2024-10-05 | Toronto FC | 0 – 1 | Inter Miami | W |
| 2024-07-17 | Inter Miami | 3 – 1 | Toronto FC | W |
| 2023-09-20 | Inter Miami | 4 – 0 | Toronto FC | W |
| 2023-03-18 | Toronto FC | 2 – 0 | Inter Miami | L |
📈 Recent form
Inter Miami come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Atletico San Luis. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Nashville SC.
- DPhiladelphia Union 2-2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- LNashville SC 4-1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- LInter Miami 2-3 LeonLeagues Cup
- WInter Miami 4-2 Atletico San LuisLeagues Cup
- DInter Miami 2-2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
Toronto FC come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to New England Revolution. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at DC United.
- DToronto FC 3-3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- DNew York City FC 1-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- LDC United 2-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- DNew England Revolution 0-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- T. AllendeKnee Injury
- Y. BrightSuspended (red card)
- G. BerterameConcussion
- MicaelInjury
- S. MoralesMuscle Injury
- M. SilvettiShoulder Injury
- J. OsorioKnee Injury
- W. ZimmermanSuspended (red card)
- N. GomisThigh Injury
- D. KerrLower-Body Injury
- N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
- L. StefanovicFoot Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Inter Miami at 70% to win and Toronto FC at 13%, with the draw at 17%. Our model makes an Inter Miami win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami Win | 70% | @ 1.39 | -3.3% |
| Draw | 17% | @ 5.10 | -11.1% |
| Toronto FC Win | 13% | @ 6.40 | -16.7% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Inter Miami or Draw at 1.11 (88% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami or Draw | 88% | @ 1.11 | -2.9% |
| Toronto FC or Draw | 31% | @ 2.85 | -10.7% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 52% | @ 2.00 | +3.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | @ 3.35 | +2.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | @ 1.09 | -4.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | @ 1.30 | -9.6% |
| Under 1.5 | 13% | @ 7.00 | -11.2% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | @ 1.80 | -13.2% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 38% | @ 2.55 | -3.1% |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | @ 1.45 | -10.1% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Inter Miami or Toronto FC is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC 0 | 22% | @ 5.75 | +25.9% |
| Toronto FC +0.75 | 37% | @ 2.94 | +10.1% |
| Toronto FC +1.25 | 50% | @ 2.21 | +9.6% |
| Toronto FC +1.75 | 61% | @ 1.78 | +8.1% |
| Toronto FC +1.5 | 56% | @ 1.92 | +6.7% |
| Toronto FC +2 | 66% | @ 1.59 | +5.2% |
| Toronto FC -0.25 | 17% | @ 6.00 | +3.1% |
| Toronto FC +0.25 | 27% | @ 3.81 | +1.3% |
| Toronto FC +0.5 | 31% | 3.19 | -0.2% |
| Inter Miami +0.5 | 88% | 1.09 | -4.2% |
| Inter Miami +0.25 | 83% | 1.12 | -7.3% |
| Inter Miami -0.25 | 73% | 1.26 | -7.5% |
| Inter Miami -0.5 | 69% | 1.33 | -8.7% |
| Inter Miami 0 | 78% | 1.14 | -11.0% |
| Inter Miami -0.75 | 63% | 1.40 | -12.3% |
| Inter Miami -1 | 57% | 1.52 | -14.0% |
| Inter Miami -1.25 | 50% | 1.68 | -15.1% |
| Inter Miami -1.5 | 44% | 1.85 | -17.5% |
| Inter Miami -2 | 34% | 2.38 | -19.1% |
| Inter Miami -1.75 | 39% | 2.06 | -19.1% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 65% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 64% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 73% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 2.15 for the home side, 0.78 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (6%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Inter Miami vs Toronto FC?
Our main pick is Toronto FC with a +2 start at odds 1.59, with 66% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Toronto FC with a +1.75 start at 1.78 (+8.1% value).
Who is the favourite for Inter Miami vs Toronto FC?
Our model makes an Inter Miami win the most likely result at 70%. It projects an expected 2.4-1.2 scoreline for Inter Miami vs Toronto FC.
What is the predicted score for Inter Miami vs Toronto FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.41 for Inter Miami and 1.18 for Toronto FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Inter Miami and Toronto FC play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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