Sat 17 Oct3-2Finished

⚽ Premiership

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell in the Premiership. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Kilmarnock 3-2 Motherwell

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell finished 3-2. Kilmarnock won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Kilmarnock face Motherwell in the Premiership, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Kilmarnock have 1 win from their last 5, while Motherwell have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Motherwell win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.6-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Motherwell or Draw @ 1.33

67%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.61 – 1.78 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	6.0%	5.3%	3.2%	1.4%
1	5.4%	9.7%	8.6%	5.1%	2.3%
2	4.4%	7.8%	6.9%	4.1%	1.8%
3	2.3%	4.2%	3.7%	2.2%	1.0%
4	0.9%	1.7%	1.5%	0.9%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Kilmarnock winDrawMotherwell win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Motherwell or Draw at odds 1.33, with a 67% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Motherwell win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (66%).

📊 Key numbers

Kilmarnock 35%Draw 22%Motherwell 42%

35%22%42%

42%

Motherwell Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Motherwell. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Rangers.

WKilmarnock 3-2 MotherwellPremiership
LRangers 3-1 KilmarnockPremiership
DKilmarnock 1-1 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
WHibernian 0-1 KilmarnockPremiership
DKilmarnock 1-1 AberdeenLeague Cup

Motherwell

Motherwell come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Kilmarnock.

LKilmarnock 3-2 MotherwellPremiership
LMotherwell 0-2 CelticPremiership
LDundee 2-1 MotherwellPremiership
LMotherwell 0-4 AberdeenPremiership
LRangers 1-0 MotherwellPremiership

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Kilmarnock at 35% to win and Motherwell at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Motherwell win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Motherwell Win	42%	46%	@ 2.05
Kilmarnock Win	35%	29%	@ 3.25
Draw	22%	25%	@ 3.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Motherwell or Draw at 1.33 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Motherwell or Draw	67%	71%	@ 1.33
Kilmarnock or Draw	60%	54%	@ 1.73

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	79%	@ 1.20
Over 2.5	66%	59%	@ 1.62
Under 3.5	56%	62%	@ 1.53
Over 3.5	44%	38%	@ 2.50
Under 2.5	34%	41%	@ 2.30
Under 1.5	15%	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	66%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	34%	39%	@ 2.38

📈 How the market moved

Kilmarnock 30%Draw 25%Motherwell 45%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

Our model's pick is Motherwell or Draw at odds 1.33, with a 67% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

Our model makes a Motherwell win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.8 scoreline for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell.

What is the predicted score for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.61 for Kilmarnock and 1.78 for Motherwell. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Kilmarnock and Motherwell play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.