⚽ Premiership

Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren in the Premiership. Kick-off Wednesday 02 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Kilmarnock face ST Mirren in the Premiership, kicking off Wednesday 02 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Kilmarnock have 3 wins from their last 5, while ST Mirren have 3 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Kilmarnock win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.4-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.38

72%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.37 – 1.32 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.8%	9.0%	5.9%	2.6%	0.9%
1	9.3%	12.3%	8.1%	3.6%	1.2%
2	6.4%	8.4%	5.5%	2.4%	0.8%
3	2.9%	3.8%	2.5%	1.1%	0.4%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Kilmarnock winDrawST Mirren win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates a Kilmarnock win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.38, 72% model probability, -1.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Kilmarnock 38%Draw 26%ST Mirren 36%

38%26%36%

38%

Kilmarnock Win

50%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

-1.2%

Best value: Under 3.5

📈 Recent form

Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 15. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Ayr Utd. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Dundee Utd.

LKilmarnock 0-4 Dundee UtdPremiership
WKilmarnock 3-2 Ayr UtdLeague Cup
LKilmarnock 1-5 CelticPremiership
LST Johnstone 4-3 KilmarnockPremiership
WKilmarnock 1-0 Hamilton AcademicalLeague Cup

ST Mirren

ST Mirren come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Falkirk. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at Rangers.

DST Mirren 3-3 MotherwellPremiership
LRangers 5-1 ST MirrenLeague Cup
WST Mirren 1-0 ST JohnstonePremiership
WFalkirk 0-2 ST MirrenPremiership
LST Mirren 0-1 DunfermlineLeague Cup

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Kilmarnock at 38% to win and ST Mirren at 36%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Kilmarnock win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Kilmarnock Win	38%	@ 2.65	+1.2%
Draw	26%	@ 3.40	-12.2%
ST Mirren Win	36%	@ 2.40	-13.6%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Kilmarnock or Draw at 1.53 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Kilmarnock or Draw	64%	@ 1.53	-1.6%
ST Mirren or Draw	62%	@ 1.45	-9.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	50%	@ 2.00	-0.8%
Under 1.5	25%	@ 3.95	-1.1%
Under 3.5	72%	@ 1.38	-1.2%
Over 1.5	75%	@ 1.23	-7.8%
Over 2.5	50%	@ 1.76	-11.3%
Over 3.5	28%	@ 2.88	-18.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	46%	@ 2.18	+0.2%
BTTS Yes	54%	@ 1.58	-14.6%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	43%
Dixon-Coles	Home	46%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.32 for the home side, 1.27 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.38, with 72% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?

Our model makes a Kilmarnock win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline for Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren.

What is the predicted score for Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for Kilmarnock and 1.32 for ST Mirren. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Kilmarnock and ST Mirren play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 02 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.