Sat 12 Sep2-2Finished

⚽ Serie A

Lazio vs AC Milan Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lazio vs AC Milan in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Lazio 2-2 AC Milan

Lazio vs AC Milan finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.42, landed.

Lazio face AC Milan in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 16:00 UTC. Recent form: Lazio have 3 wins from their last 5, while AC Milan have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Lazio won 2, AC Milan won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AC Milan win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.2-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lazio vs AC Milan with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.42

73%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.20 – 1.39 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	10.4%	7.2%	3.4%	1.2%
1	9.0%	12.5%	8.7%	4.0%	1.4%
2	5.4%	7.5%	5.2%	2.4%	0.8%
3	2.2%	3.0%	2.1%	1.0%	0.3%
4	0.6%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Lazio winDrawAC Milan win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lazio vs AC Milan comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.42, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an AC Milan win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Lazio 31%Draw 30%AC Milan 40%

31%30%40%

40%

AC Milan Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Lazio and AC Milan. Wins shown from Lazio’s perspective: Lazio 2 · 2 drawn · AC Milan 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-12	Lazio	2 – 2	AC Milan	D
2026-03-15	Lazio	1 – 0	AC Milan	W
2025-11-29	AC Milan	1 – 0	Lazio	L
2025-03-02	AC Milan	1 – 2	Lazio	W
2024-08-31	Lazio	2 – 2	AC Milan	D

📈 Recent form

Lazio

Lazio come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Venezia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WVenezia 0-2 LazioSerie A
DLazio 2-2 AC MilanSerie A
WUdinese 1-2 LazioSerie A
WLazio 1-0 GenoaSerie A
WBologna 0-1 LazioSerie A

AC Milan

AC Milan come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Lecce. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Benfica.

WAC Milan 3-0 LecceSerie A
LAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
DLazio 2-2 AC MilanSerie A
DJuventus 1-1 AC MilanSerie A
WAC Milan 2-0 VeneziaSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lazio

F. Dele-BashiruMuscle Injury
D. DoekhiHand Injury
A. FurlanettoKnee Injury
A. MarusicMuscle Injury
PatricAnkle Injury
L. PellegriniInjury
N. RovellaInjury

AC Milan

No absentees reported.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lazio at 31% to win and AC Milan at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes an AC Milan win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AC Milan Win	40%	42%	@ 2.25
Lazio Win	31%	28%	@ 3.30
Draw	30%	30%	@ 3.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AC Milan or Draw at 1.30 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AC Milan or Draw	68%	72%	@ 1.30
Lazio or Draw	59%	58%	@ 1.61

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	79%	@ 1.19
Over 1.5	73%	67%	@ 1.42
Under 2.5	52%	59%	@ 1.60
Over 2.5	48%	41%	@ 2.30
Under 1.5	27%	33%	@ 2.85
Over 3.5	26%	21%	@ 4.35

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS No	48%	52%	@ 1.80

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lazio or AC Milan is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AC Milan +1.5	86%	86%	1.10
Lazio +1.75	84%	84%	1.12
AC Milan +1.25	82%	86%	1.10
Lazio +1.5	81%	79%	1.20
AC Milan +1	77%	–	1.13
Lazio +1.25	75%	77%	1.24
AC Milan +0.75	72%	78%	1.22
Lazio +1	70%	74%	1.28
AC Milan +0.5	68%	72%	1.33
Lazio +0.75	64%	64%	1.49
AC Milan +0.25	61%	67%	1.42
Lazio +0.5	59%	57%	1.67
AC Milan 0	54%	60%	1.59
Lazio +0.25	52%	50%	@ 1.93
AC Milan -0.25	48%	50%	1.94
Lazio 0	46%	40%	@ 2.40
AC Milan -0.5	41%	43%	2.25
Lazio -0.25	39%	33%	@ 2.90
AC Milan -0.75	36%	36%	2.69
Lazio -0.5	32%	28%	@ 3.37
AC Milan -1	30%	26%	@ 3.67
Lazio -0.75	28%	22%	@ 4.37
AC Milan -1.25	25%	23%	@ 4.17
AC Milan -1.5	19%	21%	4.40
Lazio -1.25	18%	14%	@ 7.00
AC Milan -1.75	16%	16%	6.00
Lazio -1.5	14%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Lazio 28%Draw 30%AC Milan 42%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lazio vs AC Milan?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.42, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 67%.

Who is the favourite for Lazio vs AC Milan?

Our model makes an AC Milan win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline for Lazio vs AC Milan.

What is the predicted score for Lazio vs AC Milan?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Lazio and 1.39 for AC Milan. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lazio and AC Milan play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.