Sat 24 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Serie A

Lazio vs Parma Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lazio vs Parma in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lazio face Parma in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Lazio have 4 wins from their last 5, while Parma have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Lazio won 1, Parma won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lazio win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.4-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lazio vs Parma with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

70%Bookmaker odds imply 70%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.43 – 0.80 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.8%	8.6%	3.4%	0.9%	0.2%
1	15.4%	12.3%	4.9%	1.3%	0.3%
2	11.0%	8.8%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%
3	5.2%	4.2%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
4	1.9%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Lazio winDrawParma win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lazio vs Parma comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Lazio win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points no (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Lazio 52%Draw 30%Parma 18%

52%30%18%

52%

Lazio Win

62%

Under 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Lazio and Parma. Wins shown from Lazio’s perspective: Lazio 1 · 2 drawn · Parma 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-04	Lazio	1 – 1	Parma	D
2025-12-13	Parma	0 – 1	Lazio	W
2025-04-28	Lazio	2 – 2	Parma	D
2024-12-01	Parma	3 – 1	Lazio	L

📈 Recent form

Lazio

Lazio come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Juventus. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WJuventus 0-3 LazioSerie A
WLazio 3-1 MonzaSerie A
DLazio 3-3 Juve StabiaFriendlies Clubs
WVenezia 0-2 LazioSerie A
DLazio 2-2 AC MilanSerie A

Parma

Parma come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Genoa. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Torino.

LParma 0-3 TorinoSerie A
LInter 3-0 ParmaSerie A
WParma 2-1 GenoaSerie A
LComo 2-1 ParmaSerie A
DParma 1-1 MonzaSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lazio

PatricSprained Ankle
A. FurlanettoJumpers Knee

Parma

No absentees reported.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lazio at 52% to win and Parma at 18%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Lazio win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lazio Win	52%	63%	@ 1.48
Draw	30%	22%	@ 4.20
Parma Win	18%	14%	@ 6.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lazio or Draw at 1.11 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lazio or Draw	79%	86%	@ 1.11
Parma or Draw	45%	37%	@ 2.62

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	81%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	65%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	62%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	38%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	35%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	19%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	58%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS Yes	42%	45%	@ 2.05

📈 How the market moved

Lazio 67%Draw 21%Parma 12%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lazio vs Parma?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Lazio vs Parma?

Our model makes a Lazio win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.4-0.8 scoreline for Lazio vs Parma.

What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Parma?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.43 for Lazio and 0.80 for Parma. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lazio and Parma play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.