Sun 13 Sep3-2Finished

⚽ Serie A

Lecce vs Monza Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lecce vs Monza in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Lecce 3-2 Monza

Lecce vs Monza finished 3-2. Lecce won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Lecce or Draw at 1.36, landed.

Lecce face Monza in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Lecce have 1 win from their last 3, while Monza have no wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Lecce won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lecce win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lecce vs Monza with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lecce +0.75 @ 1.30

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.20 – 1.15 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.5%	11.0%	6.3%	2.4%	0.7%
1	11.4%	13.2%	7.6%	2.9%	0.8%
2	6.9%	7.9%	4.5%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.7%	3.2%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.8%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Lecce winDrawMonza win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lecce vs Monza comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lecce with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lecce win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Lecce 46%Draw 31%Monza 23%

46%31%23%

46%

Lecce Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Lecce and Monza. Wins shown from Lecce’s perspective: Lecce 2 · 3 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-13	Lecce	3 – 2	Monza	W
2025-02-16	Monza	0 – 0	Lecce	D
2024-12-15	Lecce	2 – 1	Monza	W
2024-04-27	Lecce	1 – 1	Monza	D
2023-09-17	Monza	1 – 1	Lecce	D

📈 Recent form

Lecce

Lecce come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Venezia. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at AC Milan.

LAC Milan 3-0 LecceSerie A
WLecce 3-2 MonzaSerie A
LCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
LLecce 0-4 AS RomaSerie A
WVenezia 0-2 LecceSerie A

Monza

Monza come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Sassuolo. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Lecce.

WMonza 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
LLecce 3-2 MonzaSerie A
DParma 1-1 MonzaSerie A
WTorino 0-1 MonzaCoppa Italia
LMonza 2-3 UdineseSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lecce

M. BerishaLacking Match Fitness
O. GandelmanNot in squad
W. GeubbelsAnkle Injury

Monza

P. CiurriaNot in squad
C. NgongeLacking Match Fitness
M. PessinaKnee Injury
I. ToureContusion
J. ZiolkowskiFoot Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lecce at 46% to win and Monza at 23%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Lecce win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lecce Win	46%	37%	@ 2.50
Draw	31%	30%	@ 3.15
Monza Win	23%	33%	@ 2.85

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lecce or Draw at 1.36 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lecce or Draw	74%	67%	@ 1.36
Monza or Draw	51%	63%	@ 1.46

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	78%	@ 1.20
Over 1.5	68%	67%	@ 1.41
Under 2.5	58%	59%	@ 1.60
Over 2.5	42%	41%	@ 2.28
Under 1.5	32%	33%	@ 2.85
Over 3.5	21%	22%	@ 4.30

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	52%	@ 1.77
BTTS Yes	48%	48%	@ 1.91

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lecce or Monza is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lecce +1.5	90%	84%	@ 1.13
Lecce +1.25	86%	83%	1.15
Monza +2	82%	86%	1.10
Lecce +1	82%	–	1.18
Monza +1.75	79%	86%	1.10
Lecce +0.75	78%	73%	@ 1.30
Monza +1.5	75%	84%	1.13
Lecce +0.5	74%	66%	@ 1.46
Monza +1.25	69%	–	1.18
Lecce +0.25	68%	60%	@ 1.61
Monza +1	63%	–	1.19
Lecce 0	61%	51%	@ 1.92
Monza +0.75	57%	72%	1.32
Lecce -0.25	55%	41%	@ 2.31
Monza +0.5	51%	65%	1.48
Lecce -0.5	48%	35%	@ 2.70
Monza +0.25	45%	59%	1.64
Lecce -0.75	43%	28%	@ 3.40
Monza 0	39%	49%	1.97
Monza -0.25	32%	40%	2.37
Monza -0.5	26%	34%	2.79
Lecce -1.5	25%	16%	@ 5.90
Monza -0.75	22%	27%	3.54
Lecce -1.75	21%	14%	@ 7.00
Lecce -2	18%	14%	@ 6.80
Monza -1.25	14%	17%	5.50
Monza -1.5	10%	16%	5.90

📈 How the market moved

Lecce 35%Draw 31%Monza 34%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lecce vs Monza?

Our model's main pick is Lecce with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Lecce vs Monza?

Our model makes a Lecce win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline for Lecce vs Monza.

What is the predicted score for Lecce vs Monza?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Lecce and 1.15 for Monza. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lecce and Monza play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.