⚽ Serie A

Lecce vs Monza Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lecce vs Monza in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lecce face Monza in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Lecce have 1 win from their last 3, while Monza have 0 wins from their last 3. In their last 4 meetings, Lecce won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lecce win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lecce vs Monza with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lecce or Draw @ 1.36

74%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.27 – 1.19 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.5%	10.2%	6.0%	2.4%	0.7%
1	10.9%	12.9%	7.7%	3.0%	0.9%
2	6.9%	8.2%	4.9%	1.9%	0.6%
3	2.9%	3.5%	2.1%	0.8%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Lecce winDrawMonza win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lecce vs Monza is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Lecce or Draw at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates a Lecce win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (50%).

Best value

Lecce or Draw at odds 1.36, 74% model probability, +0.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Lecce 46%Draw 30%Monza 23%

46%30%23%

46%

Lecce Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS no

+0.7%

Best value: Lecce or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Lecce and Monza. Wins shown from Lecce’s perspective: Lecce 1 · 3 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-02-16	Monza	0 – 0	Lecce	D
2024-12-15	Lecce	2 – 1	Monza	W
2024-04-27	Lecce	1 – 1	Monza	D
2023-09-17	Monza	1 – 1	Lecce	D

📈 Recent form

Lecce

Lecce come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Venezia. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Cagliari.

LCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
LLecce 0-4 AS RomaSerie A
WVenezia 0-2 LecceSerie A
LPalermo 2-0 LecceCoppa Italia
WLecce 1-0 SS MonopoliFriendlies Clubs

Monza

Monza come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Avellino. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Udinese.

DParma 1-1 MonzaSerie A
WTorino 0-1 MonzaCoppa Italia
LMonza 2-3 UdineseSerie A
LInter 4-1 MonzaSerie A
WMonza 3-0 AvellinoCoppa Italia

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lecce

W. GeubbelsInjury

Monza

P. CiurriaNot in squad
M. PessinaKnee Injury
I. ToureContusion
G. VarelaThigh Injury
J. ZiolkowskiFoot Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lecce at 46% to win and Monza at 23%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Lecce win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Lecce Win	46%	@ 2.50	+15.6%
Draw	30%	@ 3.15	-4.2%
Monza Win	23%	@ 2.85	-33.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lecce or Draw at 1.36 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Lecce or Draw	74%	@ 1.36	+0.7%
Monza or Draw	51%	@ 1.46	-25.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 2.5	45%	@ 2.28	+1.7%
Over 3.5	23%	@ 4.30	+0.6%
Over 1.5	70%	@ 1.41	-0.7%
Under 3.5	77%	@ 1.20	-8.1%
Under 2.5	55%	@ 1.60	-11.3%
Under 1.5	30%	@ 2.85	-15.8%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	50%	@ 1.91	-4.9%
BTTS No	50%	@ 1.77	-11.1%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lecce vs Monza?

Our main pick is Lecce or Draw at odds 1.36, with 74% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Lecce vs Monza?

Our model makes a Lecce win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for Lecce vs Monza.

What is the predicted score for Lecce vs Monza?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.27 for Lecce and 1.19 for Monza. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lecce and Monza play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.