Sun 13 Sep2-0Finished

⚽ Ligue 1

Lille vs Estac Troyes Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lille vs Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes

Lille vs Estac Troyes finished 2-0. Lille won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.36, landed.

Lille face Estac Troyes in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Lille have 3 wins from their last 5, while Estac Troyes have 1 win from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lille win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 1.7-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lille vs Estac Troyes with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Estac Troyes +2 @ 1.35

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.73 – 1.11 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	6.5%	3.6%	1.3%	0.4%
1	10.1%	11.2%	6.2%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.7%	9.7%	5.4%	2.0%	0.6%
3	5.0%	5.6%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
4	2.2%	2.4%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Lille winDrawEstac Troyes win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lille vs Estac Troyes comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Estac Troyes with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lille win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Lille 55%Draw 24%Estac Troyes 20%

55%24%20%

55%

Lille Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Lille

Lille come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Estac Troyes. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Nice.

LNice 2-1 LilleLigue 1
WLille 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
LLille 2-3 Real BetisUEFA Champions League
WToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
DLille 2-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1

Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Lorient. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Angers.

LAngers 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
LLille 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
LEstac Troyes 2-6 StrasbourgLigue 1
WLorient 1-2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
DEstac Troyes 0-0 Paris FCLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lille

H. IgamaneKnee Injury

Estac Troyes

I. BouraInjury
P. GozziMuscle Injury
M. IfnaouiInjury
A. PhliponeauKnee Injury
Y. TitiInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lille at 55% to win and Estac Troyes at 20%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Lille win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lille Win	55%	69%	@ 1.34
Draw	24%	20%	@ 4.75
Estac Troyes Win	20%	11%	@ 8.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lille or Draw at 1.06 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lille or Draw	79%	89%	@ 1.06
Estac Troyes or Draw	44%	31%	@ 3.10

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	76%	@ 1.24
Under 3.5	68%	69%	@ 1.36
Over 2.5	54%	53%	@ 1.79
Under 2.5	46%	47%	@ 1.98
Over 3.5	32%	31%	@ 3.05
Under 1.5	22%	24%	@ 3.95

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	44%	@ 2.12
BTTS No	45%	56%	@ 1.65

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lille or Estac Troyes is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lille +0.5	79%	86%	1.10
Estac Troyes +2	77%	70%	@ 1.35
Lille +0.25	73%	85%	1.12
Estac Troyes +1.75	73%	63%	@ 1.52
Estac Troyes +1.5	69%	56%	@ 1.70
Lille 0	68%	83%	1.14
Estac Troyes +1.25	63%	51%	@ 1.91
Lille -0.25	62%	74%	1.27
Estac Troyes +1	56%	43%	@ 2.22
Lille -0.5	56%	67%	1.42
Estac Troyes +0.75	50%	37%	@ 2.54
Lille -0.75	50%	63%	1.52
Estac Troyes +0.5	44%	33%	@ 2.89
Lille -1	44%	57%	1.68
Estac Troyes +0.25	38%	25%	@ 3.73
Lille -1.25	37%	49%	1.98
Estac Troyes 0	32%	17%	@ 5.75
Lille -1.5	31%	44%	2.19
Lille -1.75	27%	37%	2.56
Estac Troyes -0.25	27%	15%	@ 6.25
Lille -2	23%	30%	3.21
Estac Troyes -0.5	21%	14%	@ 6.80

📈 How the market moved

Lille 67%Draw 20%Estac Troyes 13%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lille vs Estac Troyes?

Our model's main pick is Estac Troyes with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Lille vs Estac Troyes?

Our model makes a Lille win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline for Lille vs Estac Troyes.

What is the predicted score for Lille vs Estac Troyes?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.73 for Lille and 1.11 for Estac Troyes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lille and Estac Troyes play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.