vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
Los Angeles Galaxy face San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 02:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Los Angeles Galaxy won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely result at 58%, projecting a 2.2-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Los Angeles Galaxy or Draw at odds 1.45, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 58%. Goals lean over 2.5 (78%), both teams to score points yes (75%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is a Los Angeles Galaxy win at odds 2.28 (+33.1% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Los Angeles Galaxy and San Jose Earthquakes. Wins shown from Los Angeles Galaxy’s perspective: Los Angeles Galaxy 4 · 1 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | San Jose Earthquakes | 0 – 3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W |
| 2024-04-22 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 4 – 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | W |
| 2024-03-03 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W |
| 2023-08-31 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2 – 3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W |
| 2023-07-02 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2 – 2 | Los Angeles Galaxy | D |
📈 Recent form
Los Angeles Galaxy come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Seattle Sounders. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Houston Dynamo.
- LHouston Dynamo 1-0 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- DLos Angeles Galaxy 1-1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- WSeattle Sounders 0-2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- LSporting Kansas City 3-1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- WAtlanta United FC 1-2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Portland Timbers. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to St. Louis City.
- LSan Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- LFC Cincinnati 4-2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- WPortland Timbers 1-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- LColorado Rapids 2-0 San Jose EarthquakesUS Open Cup
- LSan Jose Earthquakes 2-3 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- C. GarcesSuspended (red card)
- R. PuigKnee Injury
- E. ThommyInjury
- Joao KlaussFoot Injury
- M. ReusPersonal Reasons
- E. WynderInjury
- N. AdimabuaLower-Body Injury
- D. JonesAchilles Tendon Injury
- R. RobertsSuspended (cards)
- E. EdwardsLower-Body Injury
- J. A. Gonzalez MendozaLower-Body Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Los Angeles Galaxy at 58% to win and San Jose Earthquakes at 23%, with the draw at 18%. Our model makes a Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Galaxy Win | 58% | @ 2.28 | +33.1% |
| Draw | 18% | @ 3.90 | -28.2% |
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 23% | @ 2.66 | -38.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Los Angeles Galaxy or Draw at 1.45 (79% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Galaxy or Draw | 79% | @ 1.45 | +15.0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes or Draw | 44% | @ 1.60 | -29.2% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 78% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 60% | @ 2.10 | +25.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | @ 1.44 | +12.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | @ 1.13 | +3.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 40% | @ 1.70 | -31.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | @ 2.75 | -40.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 8% | @ 5.75 | -53.2% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 75%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 75% | @ 1.38 | +3.3% |
| BTTS No | 25% | @ 2.80 | -29.5% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 57% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 43% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 66% |
Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.
Expected goals: 1.75 for the home side, 0.96 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our main pick is Los Angeles Galaxy or Draw at odds 1.45, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is a Los Angeles Galaxy win at 2.28 (+33.1% value).
Who is the favourite for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model makes a Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely result at 58%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.9 scoreline for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes.
What is the predicted score for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.25 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.90 for San Jose Earthquakes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Los Angeles Galaxy and San Jose Earthquakes play?
Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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