⚽ Ligue 1
Lyon vs Auxerre Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lyon vs Auxerre in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 04 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Result: Lyon 3-1 Auxerre
Lyon vs Auxerre finished 3-1. Lyon won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Lyon face Auxerre in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Friday 04 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Lyon have 2 wins from their last 5, while Auxerre have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Lyon won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 1.9-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lyon vs Auxerre with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 5.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Lyon vs Auxerre comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Auxerre with a +2 start at odds 1.30, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lyon win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Lyon and Auxerre. Wins shown from Lyon’s perspective: Lyon 3 · 2 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Lyon | 3 – 1 | Auxerre | W |
| 2026-04-25 | Lyon | 3 – 2 | Auxerre | W |
| 2025-11-23 | Auxerre | 0 – 0 | Lyon | D |
| 2025-04-13 | Auxerre | 1 – 3 | Lyon | W |
| 2024-10-27 | Lyon | 2 – 2 | Auxerre | D |
📈 Recent form
Lyon come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rennes.
- WLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
- WAnderlecht 1-2 LyonUEFA Europa League
- DParis FC 0-0 LyonLigue 1
- WLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
- DLyon 1-1 Le HavreLigue 1
Auxerre come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Brest. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Lyon.
- WAuxerre 2-1 BrestLigue 1
- WAuxerre 1-0 NiceLigue 1
- LLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
- LAuxerre 1-3 AngersLigue 1
- LLens 5-2 AuxerreLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 15 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. DuranvilleMuscle Injury
- A. Gomes RodriguezNot in squad
- A. HamdaniNot in squad
- N. KamaraNot in squad
- S. KangoNot in squad
- K. NakamuraCoach's decision
- M. OuedraogoNot in squad
- M. de CarvalhoNot in squad
- A. DiousseKnee Injury
- S. FofanaGroin Injury
- B. OkohKnee Injury
- F. OppegardIllness
- M. SenayaInjury
- F. SierraltaInjury
- A. TuanzebeLacking Match Fitness
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Lyon at 56% to win and Auxerre at 21%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon Win | 56% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | @ 4.20 |
| Auxerre Win | 21% | 16% | @ 5.80 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lyon or Draw at 1.12 (80% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon or Draw | 80% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Auxerre or Draw | 44% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Under 3.5 | 62% | 67% | @ 1.41 |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 55% | @ 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 33% | @ 2.80 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 22% | @ 4.25 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 52% | @ 1.79 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 48% | @ 1.93 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lyon or Auxerre is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon +0.75 | 83% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Lyon +0.5 | 80% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Auxerre +2 | 77% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Lyon +0.25 | 74% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Auxerre +1.75 | 73% | 65% | @ 1.46 |
| Auxerre +1.5 | 68% | 59% | @ 1.59 |
| Lyon 0 | 68% | 81% | 1.18 |
| Auxerre +1.25 | 62% | 54% | @ 1.80 |
| Lyon -0.25 | 62% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Auxerre +1 | 56% | 47% | @ 2.05 |
| Lyon -0.5 | 56% | 64% | 1.48 |
| Auxerre +0.75 | 50% | 41% | @ 2.35 |
| Lyon -0.75 | 50% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Auxerre +0.5 | 44% | 36% | @ 2.58 |
| Lyon -1 | 44% | 53% | 1.80 |
| Auxerre +0.25 | 38% | 28% | @ 3.37 |
| Lyon -1.25 | 38% | 46% | 2.10 |
| Auxerre 0 | 32% | 19% | @ 5.04 |
| Lyon -1.5 | 32% | 41% | 2.33 |
| Lyon -1.75 | 27% | 35% | 2.75 |
| Auxerre -0.25 | 26% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Lyon -2 | 23% | 27% | 3.56 |
| Auxerre -0.5 | 20% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| Auxerre -0.75 | 17% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our model's main pick is Auxerre with a +2 start at odds 1.30, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.2 scoreline for Lyon vs Auxerre.
What is the predicted score for Lyon vs Auxerre?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.92 for Lyon and 1.22 for Auxerre. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Lyon and Auxerre play?
Kick-off is Friday 04 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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