⚽ Ligue 1

Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lyon vs Auxerre in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 04 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lyon face Auxerre in the Ligue 1, kicking off Friday 04 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Lyon have 2 wins from their last 5, while Auxerre have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Lyon won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 1.9-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lyon vs Auxerre with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

BTTS Yes @ 1.79

60%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.92 – 1.22 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.3%	5.3%	3.2%	1.3%	0.4%
1	8.3%	10.1%	6.2%	2.5%	0.8%
2	8.0%	9.7%	5.9%	2.4%	0.7%
3	5.1%	6.2%	3.8%	1.5%	0.5%
4	2.5%	3.0%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Lyon winDrawAuxerre win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lyon vs Auxerre is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is both teams to score at odds 1.79, the selection our model is most confident in at 60%. On the match result, the model rates a Lyon win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 1.79, 60% model probability, +8.1% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Lyon 56%Draw 23%Auxerre 21%

56%23%21%

56%

Lyon Win

61%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

+8.1%

Best value: BTTS Yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Lyon and Auxerre. Wins shown from Lyon’s perspective: Lyon 2 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-25	Lyon	3 – 2	Auxerre	W
2025-11-23	Auxerre	0 – 0	Lyon	D
2025-04-13	Auxerre	1 – 3	Lyon	W
2024-10-27	Lyon	2 – 2	Auxerre	D

📈 Recent form

Lyon

Lyon come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Sparta Praha. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Fenerbahçe.

DLyon 1-1 Le HavreLigue 1
LLyon 1-2 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League
WToulouse 0-2 LyonLigue 1
DFenerbahçe 1-1 LyonUEFA Champions League
WLyon 3-0 Sparta PrahaUEFA Champions League

Auxerre

Auxerre come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Werder Bremen. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Angers.

LAuxerre 1-3 AngersLigue 1
LLens 5-2 AuxerreLigue 1
WWerder Bremen 0-1 AuxerreFriendlies Clubs
DAuxerre 1-1 Estac TroyesFriendlies Clubs
DSochaux 1-1 AuxerreFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lyon

J. DuranvilleMuscle Injury

Auxerre

A. DiousseKnee Injury
S. FofanaGroin Injury
B. OkohKnee Injury
M. SenayaInjury
F. SierraltaInjury
A. TuanzebeLacking Match Fitness
F. OppegardIllness

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lyon at 56% to win and Auxerre at 21%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Auxerre Win	21%	@ 5.80	+20.8%
Draw	23%	@ 4.20	-4.7%
Lyon Win	56%	@ 1.50	-15.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Auxerre or Draw at 2.48 (44% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Auxerre or Draw	44%	@ 2.48	+9.0%
Lyon or Draw	80%	@ 1.12	-10.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	38%	@ 2.80	+7.5%
Over 2.5	61%	@ 1.71	+3.9%
Over 1.5	82%	@ 1.21	-0.7%
Under 3.5	62%	@ 1.41	-13.2%
Under 2.5	39%	@ 2.10	-17.6%
Under 1.5	18%	@ 4.25	-23.8%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	60%	@ 1.79	+8.1%
BTTS No	40%	@ 1.93	-23.5%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	55%
Dixon-Coles	Home	52%
GradientBoosting	Home	59%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.75 for the home side, 0.96 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lyon vs Auxerre?

Our main pick is both teams to score at odds 1.79, with 60% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Lyon vs Auxerre?

Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.2 scoreline for Lyon vs Auxerre.

What is the predicted score for Lyon vs Auxerre?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.92 for Lyon and 1.22 for Auxerre. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lyon and Auxerre play?

Kick-off is Friday 04 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.