⚽ Ligue 2

Montpellier vs PAU Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Montpellier vs PAU in the Ligue 2. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Montpellier face PAU in the Ligue 2, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Montpellier have 2 wins from their last 5, while PAU have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Montpellier win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.7-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Montpellier vs PAU with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

72%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.71 – 0.95 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.0%	6.6%	3.2%	1.0%	0.2%
1	12.0%	11.4%	5.4%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.2%	9.7%	4.6%	1.5%	0.3%
3	5.8%	5.5%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.5%	2.4%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Montpellier winDrawPAU win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Montpellier vs PAU is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates a Montpellier win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (50%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is a Montpellier win at odds 1.89 (+1.4% model value).

Best value

Montpellier Win at odds 1.89, 54% model probability, +1.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Montpellier 54%Draw 27%PAU 19%

54%27%19%

54%

Montpellier Win

50%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

+1.4%

Best value: Montpellier Win

📈 Recent form

Montpellier

Montpellier come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Dunkerque. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Saint Etienne.

LSaint Etienne 3-1 MontpellierLigue 2
DMontpellier 0-0 BoulogneLigue 2
WDunkerque 0-1 MontpellierLigue 2
WNancy 0-1 MontpellierLigue 2
DMontpellier 1-1 DijonLigue 2

PAU

PAU come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Dijon. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Nancy.

DPAU 1-1 SochauxLigue 2
DRodez 2-2 PAULigue 2
LPAU 0-1 NancyLigue 2
WDijon 0-1 PAULigue 2
LPAU 0-1 AnnecyLigue 2

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Montpellier at 54% to win and PAU at 19%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Montpellier win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Montpellier Win	54%	@ 1.89	+1.4%
Draw	27%	@ 3.55	-3.0%
PAU Win	19%	@ 3.90	-25.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Montpellier or Draw at 1.21 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Montpellier or Draw	79%	@ 1.21	-4.3%
PAU or Draw	44%	@ 1.81	-19.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	72%	@ 1.30	-6.0%
Over 1.5	74%	@ 1.24	-7.7%
Under 2.5	50%	@ 1.83	-7.9%
Under 1.5	26%	@ 3.55	-9.1%
Over 2.5	50%	@ 1.83	-9.1%
Over 3.5	28%	@ 3.15	-12.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	50%	@ 1.95	-2.9%
BTTS Yes	50%	@ 1.70	-14.6%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	56%
Dixon-Coles	Home	51%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.74 for the home side, 0.97 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-0 (16%), 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Montpellier vs PAU?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with 72% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is a Montpellier win at 1.89 (+1.4% value).

Who is the favourite for Montpellier vs PAU?

Our model makes a Montpellier win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline for Montpellier vs PAU.

What is the predicted score for Montpellier vs PAU?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.71 for Montpellier and 0.95 for PAU. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Montpellier and PAU play?

Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.