Montpellier

Fri 11 Sep1-0Finished

PAU

⚽ Ligue 2

Montpellier vs PAU Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Montpellier vs PAU in the Ligue 2. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Montpellier 1-0 PAU

Montpellier vs PAU finished 1-0. Montpellier won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.37, landed.

Montpellier face PAU in the Ligue 2, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Montpellier have 2 wins from their last 5, while PAU have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Montpellier win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.7-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Montpellier vs PAU with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Montpellier +0.25 @ 1.28

73%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.71 – 0.95 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.0%	6.6%	3.2%	1.0%	0.2%
1	12.0%	11.4%	5.4%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.2%	9.7%	4.6%	1.5%	0.3%
3	5.8%	5.5%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.5%	2.4%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Montpellier winDrawPAU win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Montpellier vs PAU comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Montpellier with a +0.25 start at odds 1.28, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Montpellier win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Montpellier 54%Draw 27%PAU 19%

54%27%19%

54%

Montpellier Win

50%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Montpellier

Montpellier come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to PAU. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Saint Etienne.

DReims 1-1 MontpellierLigue 2
WMontpellier 1-0 PAULigue 2
LSaint Etienne 3-1 MontpellierLigue 2
DMontpellier 0-0 BoulogneLigue 2
WDunkerque 0-1 MontpellierLigue 2

PAU

PAU come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Dunkerque. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Montpellier.

WPAU 2-0 DunkerqueLigue 2
LMontpellier 1-0 PAULigue 2
DPAU 1-1 SochauxLigue 2
DRodez 2-2 PAULigue 2
LPAU 0-1 NancyLigue 2

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Montpellier at 54% to win and PAU at 19%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Montpellier win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Montpellier Win	54%	50%	@ 1.89
Draw	27%	26%	@ 3.55
PAU Win	19%	24%	@ 3.90

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Montpellier or Draw at 1.21 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Montpellier or Draw	79%	76%	@ 1.21
PAU or Draw	44%	50%	@ 1.81

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	74%	@ 1.24
Under 3.5	72%	71%	@ 1.30
Under 2.5	50%	50%	@ 1.83
Over 2.5	50%	50%	@ 1.83
Over 3.5	28%	29%	@ 3.15
Under 1.5	26%	26%	@ 3.55

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	53%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	50%	47%	@ 1.95

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Montpellier or PAU is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Montpellier +0.75	82%	83%	1.15
Montpellier +0.5	79%	77%	1.24
PAU +2	78%	85%	1.12
PAU +1.75	73%	77%	1.22
Montpellier +0.25	73%	74%	1.28
PAU +1.5	69%	73%	1.31
Montpellier 0	67%	70%	1.36
PAU +1.25	63%	69%	1.39
Montpellier -0.25	61%	59%	1.61
PAU +1	57%	64%	1.49
Montpellier -0.5	56%	51%	@ 1.87
PAU +0.75	51%	55%	1.72
Montpellier -0.75	49%	45%	@ 2.13
PAU +0.5	44%	49%	1.96
Montpellier -1	43%	36%	@ 2.65
PAU +0.25	39%	41%	2.32
Montpellier -1.25	37%	31%	@ 3.04
PAU 0	33%	30%	@ 3.13
Montpellier -1.5	31%	27%	@ 3.46
PAU -0.25	27%	26%	3.62
Montpellier -1.75	27%	23%	@ 4.15
Montpellier -2	22%	15%	@ 6.25
PAU -0.5	21%	23%	4.12
PAU -0.75	18%	17%	5.50

📈 How the market moved

Montpellier 50%Draw 27%PAU 23%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Montpellier vs PAU?

Our model's main pick is Montpellier with a +0.25 start at odds 1.28, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Montpellier vs PAU?

Our model makes a Montpellier win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline for Montpellier vs PAU.

What is the predicted score for Montpellier vs PAU?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.71 for Montpellier and 0.95 for PAU. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Montpellier and PAU play?

Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.