⚽ Serie A
Napoli vs AS Roma Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Napoli vs AS Roma in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Napoli face AS Roma in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC. Recent form: Napoli have 2 wins from their last 5, while AS Roma have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Napoli won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Napoli vs AS Roma with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 10.5% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Napoli vs AS Roma comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates an AS Roma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Napoli and AS Roma. Wins shown from Napoli’s perspective: Napoli 2 · 3 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Napoli | 2 – 2 | AS Roma | D |
| 2025-11-30 | AS Roma | 0 – 1 | Napoli | W |
| 2025-02-02 | AS Roma | 1 – 1 | Napoli | D |
| 2024-11-24 | Napoli | 1 – 0 | AS Roma | W |
| 2024-04-28 | Napoli | 2 – 2 | AS Roma | D |
📈 Recent form
Napoli come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Frosinone. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Venezia.
- WNapoli 4-3 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League
- LVenezia 1-0 NapoliSerie A
- LVillarreal 3-1 NapoliUEFA Champions League
- WNapoli 3-0 FrosinoneSerie A
- DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
AS Roma come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Slovan Bratislava. Their only defeat in that run was 3-4 at home to Real Madrid.
- WAS Roma 4-0 Slovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League
- WAS Roma 2-0 GenoaSerie A
- LAS Roma 3-4 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
- DComo 0-0 AS RomaSerie A
- DAS Roma 2-2 InterSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. BuongiornoJumpers Knee
- M. BahJumpers Knee
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Napoli at 37% to win and AS Roma at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma Win | 39% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
| Napoli Win | 37% | 34% | @ 2.80 |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | @ 3.20 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AS Roma or Draw at 1.40 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma or Draw | 64% | 66% | @ 1.40 |
| Napoli or Draw | 62% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 77% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 75% | @ 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Under 1.5 | 30% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 51% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
| BTTS Yes | 49% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline for Napoli vs AS Roma.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs AS Roma?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.19 for Napoli and 1.24 for AS Roma. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Napoli and AS Roma play?
Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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