⚽ Serie A
Napoli vs Bologna Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Napoli vs Bologna in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Result: Napoli 1-0 Bologna
Napoli vs Bologna finished 1-0. Napoli won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.36, did not land.
Napoli face Bologna in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC. Recent form: Napoli have 1 win from their last 3, while Bologna have no wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Napoli won 2, Bologna won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.5-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Napoli vs Bologna with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.3% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Napoli vs Bologna comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Bologna with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Napoli win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Napoli and Bologna. Wins shown from Napoli’s perspective: Napoli 2 · 1 drawn · Bologna 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Napoli | 1 – 0 | Bologna | W |
| 2026-05-11 | Napoli | 2 – 3 | Bologna | L |
| 2025-11-09 | Bologna | 2 – 0 | Napoli | L |
| 2025-04-07 | Bologna | 1 – 1 | Napoli | D |
| 2024-08-25 | Napoli | 3 – 0 | Bologna | W |
📈 Recent form
Napoli come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Arsenal.
- DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
- WNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
- LNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
- LInter 3-2 NapoliSerie A
- LNapoli 1-2 ComoSerie A
Bologna come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Napoli.
- DBologna 1-1 TorinoSerie A
- LNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
- DBologna 2-2 SassuoloSerie A
- LAtalanta 1-0 BolognaSerie A
- LBologna 0-1 LazioSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Alisson SantosMuscle Injury
- F. AnguissaMuscle Injury
- A. BuongiornoKnee Injury
- GiovaneGroin Injury
- L. MarianucciKnee Injury
- S. McTominayHeart Problems
- A. MeretMuscle Injury
- A. DovbykMuscle Injury
- O. El AzzouziThigh Injury
- R. OrsoliniInjury
- N. ZorteaHip Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Napoli at 49% to win and Bologna at 23%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli Win | 49% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | @ 3.55 |
| Bologna Win | 23% | 18% | @ 5.20 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Napoli or Draw at 1.15 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli or Draw | 75% | 82% | @ 1.15 |
| Bologna or Draw | 50% | 44% | @ 2.14 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 | 73% | 76% | @ 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 55% | @ 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 45% | @ 2.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
| Under 1.5 | 26% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| BTTS No | 48% | 54% | @ 1.72 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Napoli or Bologna is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna +2 | 81% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Napoli +0.75 | 79% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Bologna +1.75 | 78% | 77% | 1.24 |
| Napoli +0.5 | 75% | 79% | 1.22 |
| Bologna +1.5 | 74% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Napoli +0.25 | 69% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Bologna +1.25 | 68% | 68% | 1.41 |
| Napoli 0 | 63% | 71% | 1.34 |
| Bologna +1 | 62% | 63% | 1.51 |
| Napoli -0.25 | 56% | 60% | 1.58 |
| Bologna +0.75 | 56% | 54% | 1.76 |
| Napoli -0.5 | 50% | 52% | 1.84 |
| Bologna +0.5 | 50% | 48% | @ 2.03 |
| Napoli -0.75 | 44% | 46% | 2.09 |
| Bologna +0.25 | 44% | 40% | @ 2.41 |
| Napoli -1 | 38% | 37% | 2.58 |
| Bologna 0 | 37% | 29% | @ 3.33 |
| Napoli -1.25 | 32% | 32% | 2.96 |
| Bologna -0.25 | 31% | 25% | @ 3.86 |
| Napoli -1.5 | 26% | 28% | 3.40 |
| Bologna -0.5 | 25% | 21% | @ 4.45 |
| Napoli -1.75 | 22% | 23% | 4.21 |
| Bologna -0.75 | 21% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Napoli -2 | 19% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Napoli vs Bologna?
Our model's main pick is Bologna with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.
Who is the favourite for Napoli vs Bologna?
Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline for Napoli vs Bologna.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Bologna?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.51 for Napoli and 1.11 for Bologna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Napoli and Bologna play?
Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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