⚽ Serie A

Napoli vs Bologna Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Napoli vs Bologna in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Napoli face Bologna in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC. Recent form: Napoli have 1 win from their last 3, while Bologna have 0 wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Napoli won 1, Bologna won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.5-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Napoli vs Bologna with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.36

73%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.49 – 1.08 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	8.3%	4.5%	1.6%	0.4%
1	11.4%	12.3%	6.7%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.5%	9.2%	5.0%	1.8%	0.5%
3	4.2%	4.6%	2.5%	0.9%	0.2%
4	1.6%	1.7%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Napoli winDrawBologna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Napoli vs Bologna is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 73%. On the match result, the model rates a Napoli win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (51%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams to score at odds 2.05 (+4.0% model value).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 2.05, 51% model probability, +4.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Napoli 49%Draw 28%Bologna 23%

49%28%23%

49%

Napoli Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

+4.0%

Best value: BTTS Yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Napoli and Bologna. Wins shown from Napoli’s perspective: Napoli 1 · 1 drawn · Bologna 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-11	Napoli	2 – 3	Bologna	L
2025-11-09	Bologna	2 – 0	Napoli	L
2025-04-07	Bologna	1 – 1	Napoli	D
2024-08-25	Napoli	3 – 0	Bologna	W
2024-05-11	Napoli	0 – 2	Bologna	L

📈 Recent form

Napoli

Napoli come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 6-2 at home to Aris Thessalonikis. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Arsenal.

LNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
LInter 3-2 NapoliSerie A
LNapoli 1-2 ComoSerie A
WGenoa 0-2 NapoliSerie A
WNapoli 6-2 Aris ThessalonikisFriendlies Clubs

Bologna

Bologna come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Atalanta.

DBologna 2-2 SassuoloSerie A
LAtalanta 1-0 BolognaSerie A
LBologna 0-1 LazioSerie A
LBrighton 1-0 BolognaFriendlies Clubs
DBologna 1-1 PisaFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Napoli

F. AnguissaMuscle Injury
A. BuongiornoKnee Injury
GiovaneGroin Injury
L. MarianucciKnee Injury
S. McTominayHeart Problems
Alisson SantosMuscle Injury
A. MeretMuscle Injury

Bologna

O. El AzzouziThigh Injury
R. OrsoliniInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Napoli at 49% to win and Bologna at 23%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Bologna Win	23%	@ 5.20	+21.3%
Draw	28%	@ 3.55	-1.1%
Napoli Win	49%	@ 1.67	-18.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bologna or Draw at 2.14 (50% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Bologna or Draw	50%	@ 2.14	+6.4%
Napoli or Draw	75%	@ 1.15	-13.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 2.5	47%	@ 2.12	+0.5%
Over 3.5	26%	@ 3.90	+0.4%
Over 1.5	73%	@ 1.36	-1.2%
Under 3.5	74%	@ 1.24	-7.9%
Under 2.5	53%	@ 1.71	-10.1%
Under 1.5	27%	@ 3.05	-16.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	51%	@ 2.05	+4.0%
BTTS No	49%	@ 1.72	-15.3%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Napoli vs Bologna?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with 73% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams to score at 2.05 (+4.0% value).

Who is the favourite for Napoli vs Bologna?

Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline for Napoli vs Bologna.

What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Bologna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.49 for Napoli and 1.08 for Bologna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Napoli and Bologna play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.