vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
New York Red Bulls face Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, New York Red Bulls won 1, Chicago Fire won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.7-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 4.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is New York Red Bulls with a +1.25 start at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 84%. On the match result, the model rates a New York Red Bulls win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (66%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is New York Red Bulls or Draw at odds 1.85 (+30.0% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire. Wins shown from New York Red Bulls’s perspective: New York Red Bulls 1 · 2 drawn · Chicago Fire 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Chicago Fire | 1 – 3 | New York Red Bulls | W |
| 2024-09-15 | Chicago Fire | 2 – 1 | New York Red Bulls | L |
| 2024-04-13 | New York Red Bulls | 0 – 0 | Chicago Fire | D |
| 2023-09-30 | New York Red Bulls | 0 – 1 | Chicago Fire | L |
| 2023-04-30 | Chicago Fire | 1 – 1 | New York Red Bulls | D |
📈 Recent form
New York Red Bulls come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Orlando City SC. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Nashville SC.
- LNew York Red Bulls 0-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- LAtlanta United FC 2-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 3-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- LNew York Red Bulls 0-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- LPhiladelphia Union 3-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Chicago Fire come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Orlando City SC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at New York City FC.
- WOrlando City SC 1-2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- WChicago Fire 2-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- WCruz Azul 1-2 Chicago FireLeagues Cup
- LNew York City FC 3-1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- LInter Miami 3-2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. MarcucciKnee Injury
- R. MosqueraThigh Injury
- A. FrancoKnee Injury
- M. MbokaziLower-Body Injury
- C. MuellerNot in squad
- S. OregelLower-Body Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices New York Red Bulls at 46% to win and Chicago Fire at 31%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls Win | 46% | @ 3.30 | +50.5% |
| Draw | 24% | @ 4.10 | -3.7% |
| Chicago Fire Win | 31% | @ 1.90 | -41.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York Red Bulls or Draw at 1.85 (70% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls or Draw | 70% | @ 1.85 | +30.0% |
| Chicago Fire or Draw | 56% | @ 1.30 | -27.7% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 55% | @ 1.83 | +0.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | @ 3.00 | -0.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | @ 1.11 | -4.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | @ 1.38 | -7.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | @ 6.25 | -11.0% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | @ 1.95 | -12.2% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 34% | @ 2.88 | -1.8% |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | @ 1.36 | -10.4% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when New York Red Bulls or Chicago Fire is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls -1 | 33% | @ 4.05 | +33.9% |
| New York Red Bulls -0.75 | 39% | @ 3.15 | +21.6% |
| New York Red Bulls -0.25 | 51% | @ 2.33 | +18.2% |
| New York Red Bulls 0 | 57% | @ 2.04 | +17.1% |
| New York Red Bulls -1.25 | 27% | @ 4.25 | +16.2% |
| New York Red Bulls -0.5 | 44% | @ 2.60 | +15.4% |
| New York Red Bulls +0.5 | 70% | @ 1.60 | +12.3% |
| New York Red Bulls +0.25 | 64% | @ 1.74 | +11.0% |
| New York Red Bulls -1.75 | 18% | @ 6.00 | +10.1% |
| New York Red Bulls +0.75 | 75% | @ 1.43 | +6.9% |
| New York Red Bulls +1.5 | 88% | @ 1.21 | +6.6% |
| New York Red Bulls +1.25 | 84% | @ 1.26 | +5.4% |
| New York Red Bulls +1.75 | 90% | @ 1.14 | +2.7% |
| New York Red Bulls +1 | 79% | @ 1.29 | +2.6% |
| New York Red Bulls +2 | 92% | @ 1.10 | +1.4% |
| Chicago Fire +1.75 | 82% | 1.12 | -8.6% |
| Chicago Fire +1.5 | 78% | 1.14 | -11.1% |
| Chicago Fire +1.25 | 73% | 1.21 | -12.1% |
| Chicago Fire +0.75 | 61% | 1.36 | -16.3% |
| Chicago Fire +1 | 67% | 1.25 | -16.6% |
| Chicago Fire +0.5 | 56% | 1.47 | -18.0% |
| Chicago Fire +0.25 | 49% | 1.62 | -20.4% |
| Chicago Fire -0.25 | 36% | 2.12 | -23.5% |
| Chicago Fire 0 | 43% | 1.79 | -23.6% |
| Chicago Fire -1 | 21% | 3.56 | -25.9% |
| Chicago Fire -0.75 | 25% | 2.83 | -28.4% |
| Chicago Fire -0.5 | 30% | 2.28 | -32.3% |
| Chicago Fire -1.25 | 16% | 3.85 | -37.0% |
| Chicago Fire -1.75 | 10% | 5.75 | -43.2% |
| Chicago Fire -2 | 8% | 7.00 | -45.3% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 49% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 48% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 49% |
Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.
Expected goals: 1.46 for the home side, 1.15 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?
Our main pick is New York Red Bulls with a +1.25 start at odds 1.26, with 84% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is New York Red Bulls or Draw at 1.85 (+30.0% value).
Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?
Our model makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.7 scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire.
What is the predicted score for New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.74 for New York Red Bulls and 1.70 for Chicago Fire. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.